They were chilling stories. During his visit to Israel and the West Bank last Monday, outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte spoke with relatives of the October 7 attacks and the bombing of the Gaza Strip. A Palestinian woman told how five family members had been killed in one airstrike. A crying Jewish girl talked about her grandfather, who had survived the Holocaust: she was afraid something like this could happen again.
Rutte first wanted to make sure that he could speak with the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas. The latter was a strict condition, Rutte said when he spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the phone on Sunday evening. We will fix thisNetanyahu said.
Rutte’s message for Netanyahu was carefully coordinated with allies. The Hague has constantly called Washington, London, Paris and Berlin in recent weeks. There was also intensive contact with Tel Aviv. Attention increasingly shifted to the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. The West wants Israel to restart the supply of basic necessities. On Friday evening, Israeli army ground forces expanded their operations and bombed all telecommunications with the Gaza Strip.
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During his meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem, Rutte emphasized something else: the militarily supreme Israel must not allow itself to be drawn into a ruthless war of retaliation that will kill tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. Even the support of the Netherlands – one of Israel’s closest allies – would no longer be self-evident.
Behind closed doors, the Western tone against Netanyahu is getting tougher, sources in The Hague say. But that certainly does not mean that the major countries are pushing for a ceasefire, as António Guterres, the UN Secretary General, did this week. Suspending the fighting is out of the question for Israel. “If you start talking about a ceasefire, the conversation is immediately over,” said an insider.
The West also does not want a ceasefire, say sources. From Washington to Berlin the communis opinion that Hamas must be destroyed, or at least dealt a major blow. There is great concern in the West about the growing threat posed by Hamas, the Lebanese Islamic movement Hezbollah and – in the background – Iran. As a result, even the very existence of the state of Israel could be at risk if the war escalates.
Other sources of fire
The crisis could also have an impact on other flashpoints – from Ukraine to Taiwan. “Countries like China and Russia are watching how the West reacts and whether we continue to support our ally,” says an insider. The show of military force by the US, which has already deployed two aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean, is a clear signal to Tehran: do not interfere.
European countries are also considering aid. French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that the international coalition against Islamic State could play a role in the fight against Hamas – although European diplomats have the impression that Paris does not yet know how, because Western military interference is not an option. . A group of countries around Germany look further into the future: what will happen if Hamas is eliminated? In Brussels, EU leaders embraced Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s plea for a new international peace conference based on a two-state solution.
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In the meantime, European leaders must weigh their words – in Brussels there was debate for days over whether an ‘s’ could be added to the word ‘humanitarian pause’ (which should be clearly distinguished from a ceasefire). The fear of offending Israel is great. Outgoing Prime Minister Rutte also had to bend over backwards in the House of Representatives this week when he was asked to speak out clearly against the growing number of civilian casualties in Gaza.
It illustrates the dilemmas facing European leaders. Europe can hardly look away from the humanitarian need in Gaza. Indignation about the fate of Palestinians in European societies is growing, and the European position is also viewed with suspicion in the non-Western world. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, EU leaders have invested a lot of energy in the so-called Global South to gather support for prosecuting Russian President Putin. Now that the EU has expressed its ‘unconditional’ support for Israel, the built-up credit can evaporate.
In the European Parliament on Thursday, Human Rights Watch director Tirana Hassan strongly warned of “the price of double standards” if Europe fails to condemn Israel’s military actions. Charles Michel, President of the European Council, is aware of that danger. While he spends a lot of time and effort convincing countries that Europe believes in a “world based on principles,” Michel said, “some in the world are trying […] to cast doubt on our credibility.” It is not difficult to guess what Michel was referring to: Russia and China take every opportunity to accuse the West of hypocrisy. “The totalitarian countries are watching,” says an insider. “This is a very dangerous period. For us, but especially for Israel.”