Pedro Sánche’s most brilliant playz during the failed investiture of Núñez Feijóo has been to get all the interventions to talk about amnesty, except the socialist one. That is to say, he has managed to remove the elephant from the room, without saying a single word. The good work has been done by his adversaries, so obsessed with turning the amnesty into the epicenter of the debate that they have normalized it and they have helped to solidify the idea that it would be inevitable. Furthermore, the Feijóo strategy has caused an inverse effect that adds more accessions and which could be summarized as Aitor Esteban’s response: “If the option is between Feijóo or amnesty, we will stick with the amnesty.”
That is, after the debate, the possibility of approving the amnesty has been installed in the collective imagination Spanish, without anything serious happening beyond the media noise of the usual suspects. It is true that the right and its extremes will continue to use it as rhetorical ammunition and that, once approved, they will turn it into a battlefield. But whatever they do, the important thing is that no one doubts that it can be produced, and that, if approved, it will not be Cuba’s loss. Also in this sense, The Feijóo debate has been an experiment by Sánchez to check whether socialists and left-wing public opinion would accept it normally, and it is evident that the test has been successful. While Pedro Jota and company called for a revolt against the amnesty, the progressive media has maintained positions, smoothed over differences and They have left the old cantankerous mammoths of the PSOE backed up to the wall. If Sánchez wanted to know if he could emulate Azaña when, in 1936, he freed 3,000 Catalan prisoners – including ‘president’ Companys – imprisoned for the events of October 6, the answer has been positive. Out of turn Pages, There is no socialist – or citizen – revolt against the amnesty. And he has achieved this endorsement without having spoken about it once, which is certainly commendable.
From there everything starts. That Sánchez has unraveled the first knot to resolve the investiture mess does not mean that the path is trodden. Input It is necessary to define the text of the law with surgical precision, so that it does not leave black holes where certain judges can escape, it is not in vain that they will be the ones who will apply it in each case. And then we will have to accept a request that is difficult for the socialists to digest: the figure of the international mediator, without which Puigdemont will not advance in the negotiation. First, because the distrust with the PSOE is absolute and, second, because Waterloo wants the Catalan conflict to be present and mark the entire process.
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But the thorniest question will come later and, no matter how much good old Asens rants, he won’t be able to avoid opening the melon. It is unimaginable that Puigdemont could accept the investiture withoutin obtaining the commitment – sealed – to advance a formula that allows voting in Catalonia. He himself installed the negotiation in a historical decision framework, and this is the true Gordian knot that will require a lot of intelligence to resolve. For now, Sánchez does not seem to be able to afford it, and Puigdemont cannot give it up, But we already know that in politics everything is impossible until it stops being so. In any case It is unthinkable that the independence movement renounces its essence, and Puigdemont has made it very clear that the amnesty is not a counterpart for the investiture, but rather the prior to sitting down to negotiate. Besides, ERC has also moved in that direction, desperate to get out the irrelevance in which it is now located in Spanish politics, so the PSOE will not be able to escape this elephant.
Does this mean that the investiture will be impossible, based on Illa’s statements? It will be difficult, because the issue of the referendum is a tough one, but a short time ago pardons were impossible, and two days ago it was unimaginable that an amnesty could be considered, and it turns out that citizens are digesting it without too many problems. What if it turns out you can stomach that other debate, too? What if it turns out that Spanish citizens are less reactionary than the noise from Madrid predicts? In any case, we will know soon, because this elephant is already ready to leave the room.