More than 40 countries, which in turn represent the 40% of the world populationly and an even larger portion of the world’s GDP, will hold elections in 2024. The results, taken separately and together, will help determine who directs the planet’s destinies. These include some of the most powerful and richest states, such as the United States, India and the United Kingdom; but also some of the poorest; the most despotic (Russia and Iran); and the most stressed, such as Taiwan and Ukraine.
This unprecedented electoral year comes while democracy has been hit. With far-right nationalist-populist parties like Fidesz in Hungary; coup plotters and Islamist militants in other corners; and the Chavista regime of Nicolás Maduro seeking to perpetuate itself in Venezuela. In line with the heavy-handed governments of Xi Jinping in China and Vladimir Putin in Russia.
Democracy
According to a study by Freedom Housethe independent watchdog based in United Statess, global freedom declined for the seventeenth consecutive year. In his 2023 report, he concluded: “Moscow’s war of aggression led to devastating human rights atrocities in Ukraine. New coups and other attempts to undermine the representative government were experienced in Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Peru and Brazil (Ndr: the attack on the capitol in Brasilia to prevent the inauguration of Lula Da Silva). The ongoing repression continued to diminish basic freedoms in Guinea and restrict those of Türkiye, Myanmar and Thailand, among others”. However, the report argues that while 35 countries experienced declines in political rights and civil liberties, 34 saw improvements.
Autocrats are neither infallible nor unbeatable. The effects of corruption and the emphasis on political control at the expense of competition exposed the limits of the authoritarian models offered by Beijing, Moscow, Caracas or Tehran,” the report notes. Although little of this has practical effects: governments that see their legitimacy undermined only become more repressive. Alexei Navalny, the main opponent of Putin’s government is now imprisoned in the Arctic. And the Maduro government prohibits Corina Machado, winner of the opposition primaries, from running for office in 2024. And the same goes for Iran, where more than 25% of the opposition candidates have already been disqualified by the clerical conservatives who dominate the government, the same one that is accused of being misogynist and murderer after the violent death of Mahsa Amini.
Scenery
The geopolitical and economic impacts of so many electoral battles, occurring more or less at the same time, can be a dangerous combo, further destabilizing an unstable world. As happened days ago in Egypt, where the former coup leader, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, prevented his only credible opponent from running against him for president. Another example: This month’s elections were “for patriots only” in Hong Kong. With the banning of a high number of candidates, turnout fell to just 27%.
And the biggest challenge in 2024 will surely be for Russia: Putin’s candidacy for a fifth presidential term will be more of an imperial coronation than a contest, after almost 25 years at the top of power.
The case of India is different. The Prime Minister’s hopes Narendra Modi of a third term could be thwarted by a new opposition coalition of 28 parties. The so-called Inclusive National Alliance for the Development of India (INDIA) seeks to govern the world’s most populous democracy with a decidedly less top-down style than that imposed by Modi, whose Hindu nationalist party, Bharatiya Janata, dominates the north and center of India. country. Rahul Gandhi, opposition leader, is a lesser challenger. But Modi’s autocratic tendencies, reflected in restrictions on journalism, the mysterious deaths of opponents, and the brutal military repression in Kashmir, put the election at risk. A surprise defeat of the current president would harm the interests of the United States in leveraging India as an ally and counterweight to China in the East.
Cycles
A war with more battles: next month’s elections in the autonomous region Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province, will be a demonstration of how much the country values its independence amid fierce external pressures. If the Democratic Progressive Party, Taipei’s independence party, wins again, an enraged Beijing could go beyond the usual military threats. And this could quickly draw the United States and its regional allies into a new war conflict.
And a political earthquake could also be seen in South Africa’s general elections, where Nelson Mandela’s ANC could lose its majority for the first time since the end of apartheid 30 years ago, if the Democratic Alliance prevails: the party would be punished by voters after years of blatant corruption, leadership scandals, and high crime and unemployment rates.
Disillusionment with democracy is the most debated issue across Africa, the fastest growing continent. And it will be tested in the elections thatThey will be held in 2024 in Algeria, Tunisia, Ghana, Rwanda, Namibia, Mozambique, Senegal, Togo and South Sudan. Finally, the five-year mandate of Volodimir Zelensky closes his cycle as president. And although under martial law the elections are suspended, a vote that acts as a safety valve to release internal tensions and popular discontent would be a necessary exercise (although unlikely given the number of Ukrainians who left the country and who would hardly attend. ballot boxes in embassies and consulates). He would demonstrate that democracy refuses to be murdered. And popular pressure could also act to force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call elections in Israel, where polls suggest a majority is betting on ending the far-right coalition government.
Image gallery
