The war in Ukraine could affect the post-pandemic recovery of European economies. The European Central Bank (ECB) already estimates 0.4% negative impact on GDP of the euro zone caused by the Russian offensive on Ukrainian territory and the economic sanctions announced by the Western powers against Moscow. The chief economist of the ECB, the Irish Philip Lanereferred to this slowdown in growth on Thursday at a meeting in Paris of the Council of Governors.
This 0.3% or 0.4% decrease in GDP growth forecasts for this year – around 4% by 2022, according to Frankfurt, before the conflict between Moscow and Kiev broke out – is about the average projection. The high European monetary authorities also contemplate most pessimistic scenariosLike un setback of 1% of growth in the Old Continent. There are also other more optimistic ones who predict that the conflict and the sanctions against Moscow will not harm economic prospects, a feasible possibility in the event that it ends up being a blitzkrieg.
“We are committed to accelerating the agenda of the last few months to strengthen our economic independence and ensure sustainable and resilient growth& rdquor ;, assured the European economy ministers in their statement after an informal meeting in Paris in the framework of France’s rotating presidency of the European Union. “It is very difficult to assess the impact of the conflict”
Although European leaders publicly boast of their “unity & rdquor; Regarding the announced sanctions against the Russian economy and leaders, there are discrepancies between them on the harshness of these measures. This was reflected in the extraordinary European Council on Thursday night in Brussels. The same French Minister of Economy, Bruno LeMaire, distanced himself from Italy or Germany —very dependent on Russian gas— and opted for the exclusion of Russia from the Swift banking system, a measure demanded by the Ukrainian government and presented as the “atomic bomb & rdquor; of economic sanctions.
In the high spheres of Europe, however, they are aware of the risk of these sanctions for the continental economies themselves. At the moment, “it is very difficult to assess the impact of the conflict& rdquor ;, recognized the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, at the press conference held in Paris within the framework of the informal meeting of ministers. “The invasion of Russia has been accompanied by a significant increase in prices (…). The price of gas is already six times higher than a year ago& rdquor ;, he added. “We must begin to reflect on the economic consequences of what is happening & rdquor ;, affirmed, for his part, the president of the Eurogroup, the Irishman Pascal Donohoe. In this press conference, they recognized that the war in Ukraine may affect some of the measures strategic European economic policy, scheduled for 2022, such as the increase in interest rates by the ECB or the end of the suspension of the 3% public deficit rule, which in principle should end at the end of this year. But they acknowledged that it is too early to make a decision and did not elaborate.