Are we on the eve of a new world war in which conflicts that until recently seemed disconnected will come together, as indeed happened in 1914 and 1939? The fear that, once again, a long relatively peaceful period is coming to an end has become palpable. The wars that are already being fought in Ukraine and Gaza, plus the threats coming from Chinese leaders who, for presumably psychological reasons, find the de facto independence of Taiwan unbearable, warn us that in the world the tectonic plates are moving with increasing speed and that the time will soon come when democratic societies will have to mobilize to stop “the autocracies” that do not want them.
The international order dominated by the United States that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union may continue for a while longer, since, to the surprise of many, the North American economy has lost neither its productive vigor nor the extraordinary technological creativity that it has always had. been one of its most striking characteristics, but there are many who believe that its days are numbered; Logically, those who feel harmed by this order are trying to take advantage of what they see as an unrepeatable opportunity to achieve their goals. Among the most impatient are the presidents of the two major autocracies, China and Russia. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin; They know that their respective countries are facing very serious demographic crises that are already causing them major problems. They have to hurry.
The same can be said of the extremely aggressive Iranian theocracy, which does not hesitate to kill those reluctant to submit to oppressive Islamic laws, and also of the Turkish regime. Although Turkey is a full member of NATO, its president, the Islamist Recep Erdogan, refuses to collaborate with his supposed allies because he subordinates everything to his own regional ambitions and sees himself as the leader of an Ottoman renaissance. Turkey is not a full autocracy, but for the United States it is proving to be a very unreliable partner.
Likewise, in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa, there are dozens of smaller actors, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Taliban, the Islamic State, the Yemeni Houthis, Al-Qaeda and Boko Haram, who are emboldened by the widespread sense that The once all-powerful West is retreating on all fronts.
Like so many others, Putin, the Russian “tsar,” has never hidden his conviction that those who govern Western countries lack the mental firmness they would need to defend themselves against truly determined enemies. A century ago, those Germans and Japanese who thought the same were wrong, but that does not mean that their current equivalents have also done so.
Putin is impatiently awaiting the return to the White House of Donald Trump who, if the most recent opinion polls and the landslide victory he scored days ago in the Iowa caucus are correct, could defeat by a wide margin to Joe Biden in the November presidential elections. The Russian dictator is already being helped by Republican legislators who, under pressure from Trump, are stopping the very expensive military and financial aid packages that Biden would like to send to Ukraine. So are those European leaders who, accustomed as they are to depending completely on the United States when it comes to military matters, do not have the precise means to supply Volodimir Zelensky’s government with war material in sufficient quantities.
Although Putin will not be able to completely conquer Ukraine, if Trump allows it, he could keep the already occupied parts that include the Crimean peninsula, and then start threatening other European countries; Recently, the Swedish military authorities alarmed their compatriots by advising them to mentally prepare to face a war on their sovereign territory.
Meanwhile, the Chinese boss, Xi Jinping, continues to hint that at any time he could order his country’s armed forces to ensure the reintegration of the island of Taiwan into the motherland. An attempt in this direction would not be without risks for Xi; Like the Ukrainians, the Taiwanese could stop an initial assault and receive help from the United States, Australia, the Europeans and Japan.
The Taiwanese, who have just elected Lai Ching-te as president who does not want to know anything about the mandatory “reunification” with their gigantic neighbor, are satisfied with the ambiguous reality that has existed for decades in which they have preserved their independence, without – so as not to upset the hypersensitive regime in Beijing – the rest of the world officially recognizes it.
Xi shares with Putin the desire to culminate his political career by taking over what he takes to be a rebellious province. Neither of them is concerned about the international laws that Westerners often refer to or the fact that the cultural differences, both social and linguistic, that separate the country they govern from the one they dream of colonizing have recently grown a lot. From the point of view of Xi and Putin, their own interpretation of the history of the territory they have in their sights is the only admissible one.
Thus, the mere suspicion that representatives of Javier Milei’s government would have chatted politely with their Taiwanese counterparts was enough to provoke a diplomatic crisis that Foreign Minister Diana Mondino tried to solve by swearing that Argentina vindicates the Beijing dogma of “one China.” , which is a way of saying that, when commercial interests are at stake, it can be as hypocritical as almost every other country, starting with the United States which, despite its alleged adherence to the sacred principle of the unbreakable unity of the Kingdom of the Middle East, as defined by the Communist Party in Beijing, has not hesitated to send sophisticated weapons to the Taiwanese and makes it known that it would help them defend themselves against a possible Chinese attack.
Would the Americans be in a position to do it? Many doubt this, which in itself is a cause for concern; If the feeling spreads that the United States and European countries are so weak that they are not even capable of providing protection to allies as valuable as Taiwan, the world will soon become even more violent than it already is.
There is a reason why a seemingly anecdotal friction, caused by the efforts of the United States, the United Kingdom and, without actively participating, other countries to force the Yemeni Houthis to desist from attacking, is of such importance. with drones and missiles to cargo ships sailing in the Red Sea. Unless the Americans and British manage to intimidate what is a fanatically anti-Jewish tribal militia, backed by Iran, it would be more than likely that other enemies of what is still the status quo would emulate them, since today in Nowadays, drones are cheap and it is not difficult to find powerful missiles in the great international arms bazaar. Therefore, any well-placed terrorist group could paralyze global trade, which would have unpleasant consequences for billions of people who would see the cost of living rise even further.
The Houthis swear that all they want to do is help Gazans by attacking ships linked to Israel. The solidarity thus assumed is not due to humanitarian feelings, since they themselves and their Iranian godfather have been responsible for massacres decidedly greater than those caused by the Israeli aviation, but to the jihadist fever that affects all countries in one way or another. from the extensive Muslim world and to the Islamic enclaves that have formed in Europe, the United States, Canada and Australia. This is a reality that, until now, Western governments have chosen to ignore, insisting that it is absurd to link “the religion of peace” with the horrendous violence that is so often perpetrated in its name. Needless to say, such an attitude greatly bothers the many who, to the indignation of the political, academic and media “elites”, increasingly tend to support movements labeled “ultra-right”.
As unfortunate as it may seem, ultimately the freedom of a community depends on its own military capabilities or that of those willing to help it. The community made up of “the West” as a whole is no exception to this sad ancient rule. This is understood by Israelis who, to their hesitant Western friends, have to appear determined to go to virtually any length to minimize the suffering of civilians trapped in a war zone, but who, to their Muslim neighbors, know forced to remind them that they possess a terrifying and invincible military power because, if they do not convince them, those who hate them for nationalist and religious reasons would not hesitate for a moment in trying to exterminate them. On the other hand, North Americans, accustomed as they are to fighting their wars in foreign countries, and Europeans, who since the middle of the last century have been protected by the North American shield, refuse to understand something that for their ancestors was indisputable.
