The PP discounts a victory of Alfonso Fernandez Manueco next February 13. But the final photo of the results will be what determines if the plans are fulfilled of the national leadership and of the candidate himself, who need a government alone to continue with the roadmap that began in Madrid. The expectations are high because in Genoa they continue to defend that the Castilian-Leon president will touch the absolute majority: they assure that he could be in the 38 or 39 attorneys (the absolute is in 41).
In any case, some polls, beyond the CIS (which drew a very pessimistic scenario for the popular contrary to what the rest of the polls reflect), are beginning to point out that the victory will not be so clear and that it could remain in a range of 33 to 35 deputies. This scenario is very different from the desired one and some regional leaders they consider it more realistic. The point is that a significant number of dubious voters will condition the final result.
Internal data from the CIS (the only barometer that has 7,100 respondents) indicate that up to 52% of voters have doubts between two formations when going to vote.
In the PP they assume that this fact affects them to a great extent. And there are leaders who point out that the two weeks of the electoral campaign “will be crucial”. Some veterans who have led many campaigns and who held important positions of responsibility in the past recognize that citizens “are more democratically mature & rdquor; now and that, unlike what happened years ago, decide their vote in the days before to the elections. “It is no longer worth not screwing up in the campaign as we said before. Now you have to convince and you have to take into account that they will listen and read everything that happens. And that this can influence them & rdquor ;, settle.
The debates can also have their effect and the fact that the Ciudadanos candidate, Francisco Igea, finally intervene in this Monday via telematics (after testing positive for coronavirus) it can be a shock to the popular. The former Vice President of the Board trusted these debates and, above all, Face to face against Mañueco, to grow in the polls. The fact that he is not present in person detracts from the orange leader. The candidates of United We Can and Vox do not debate either because they do not have their own parliamentary group, which ‘de facto’ places the PP and PSOE as the two great rivals.
In the case of the PP, the dispute with vox is in the last seat to be distributed in many provinces. The popular ones count on the fact that the party of Santiago Abascal has many possibilities of obtaining a seat in all the constituencies, which directly places it in nine prosecutors. If they get any more, for example, in Valladolid or Burgos (as some polls say, placing them in 12 regional deputies) it will be because they have managed to tip the balance in those seats at the end.
And, for that reason, in the PP they continue to think that it is possible close to the absolute majority and reduce the options of ultra training. The distribution of seats by constituencies will be 15 representatives from Valladolid, 13 in the case of León, 11 for Burgos, 10 for Salamanca, 7 for Ávila, Palencia and Zamora, six for Segovia and 5 for Soria.
The key, they say in Genoa, will be in the last week of the campaign. It will be time to fully commit and mobilize the entire organization. They will have already passed through the Juanma Moreno Bonilla community, Isabel Diaz Ayuso Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the former president Jose Maria Aznar, and it will do so, on the last Thursday of the campaign, Mariano Rajoy. The closure will be in Valladolid and will once again feature all the regional barons. Aznar’s intervention this weekend did not go unnoticed due to his veiled attacks on Casado, which have not gone down well in some sectors of the formation.
Doubtful voters will hold the key to the final outcome. The pre-election CIS throws up several questions that the PP takes into account: 71% of voters who opted for Vox in 2019 say they are not clear now between two parties. In the case of Citizens voters, 52.8% also expressed doubts with two formations. Is about a bag of voters that Mañueco pursues. The other great unknown is that of participation. This is indeed a cause for concern for the PP, aware that they could be the most affected.
They are the first autonomous elections to which Castilla y León it appears alone, detaching itself from other autonomies and, above all, from the municipal ones, in a land in which the election of the mayor is always important and drags the vote to the Board.
The fear that something goes wrong It has a lot to do with the strong bet that the PP has made. The advancement of Alfonso Fernández Mañueco had been in the air for some time, but in the end everyone was surprised by the chosen date. Above all, to Citizens, his partner in government, who did not have the call. In fact, days before, Igea defended the possibility of joint lists in that community, as was also proposed in Andalusia.
The electoral advance was convenient for Mañueco and also for Genoa, where they trust that several regional successes will end up lifting Casado to Moncloa. That is the plan designed by the management, the same one that started in Madrid and that they intend to replicate in Castilla y León and Andalusia. rule alone, expel Citizens from the Courts (absorbing his entire voter) and stop vox are the three main objectives of the call. Depending on the degree of compliance, the PP will sign a success or failure that conditions the rest of the electoral cycle.