The dikes have to be even higher than expected, and you will feel that in your wallet Economy

Next year, the water board tax will increase by an average of 10 percent, says Rogier van der Sande, chairman of the Union of Water Boards. “That has a lot to do with inflation. But taxes will also increase in subsequent years. We must do so much more to protect the Netherlands against the consequences of climate change, there is simply no other way.”

It doesn’t stop there. According to the water boards, the government must also invest much more in the coming decades in preparing our country for the changing climate and extreme weather. “A new cabinet that takes office after the elections of November 22 must start with this. And a lot of money needs to be set aside for this. That may not be a popular message during election times, but it is reality,” says Van der Sande, also dike manager of the Rijnland water board.

Yesterday, the weather institute KNMI presented new climate scenarios up to 2100. They are not exactly attractive. According to the KNMI, the Netherlands must prepare for this ‘nightmare scenarios’. In summary: winters are becoming wetter, heavy showers occur more often that can lead to a lot of flooding and summers are becoming much drier. The sea level will rise due to the melting polar ice caps and, according to the gloomy forecast, will be as much as 2.5 meters higher at the beginning of the 22nd century than it is now.

With such future plans, the dikes in the Netherlands must be raised even further than is currently planned through the Flood Protection Program. The current budget of 13.7 billion euros is therefore not nearly enough, the water boards expect. “That amount could well be over the top,” says Jeroen Haan, dike manager of the Stichtse Rijnlanden water board and board member of the Union of Water Boards. “But the uncertainty about what awaits the Netherlands is still too great to put exact amounts on it. And it is certain that much more will be needed in the long term.”

To cope with all the changes, the Netherlands must not only reserve billions of euros, but also physical space, according to the water boards. Space around dikes, so that they can be raised further. But also in polders and nature, where extra water can be stored during extreme showers or for long dry periods. In the event of extreme rainfall, water will be much less able to flow from rivers into the sea in the future, because the water level there is much higher than it is now.

And so space must be created inland. That space can be at the expense of new homes or businesses. Van der Sande: “But if you don’t do that now, you will get yourself into trouble in the long run. A long-term vision is needed. There must be rules for where you will build and where not.”

Haan points to housing projects near dikes. “First of all, as a buyer of such a home, you have to seriously ask yourself whether that is a good idea, given everything that is coming our way. But secondly, as a government you could also decide: we simply won’t build in those places anymore.”

If a dike has to be raised by one meter, tens of linear meters of space are required on both sides of the dike. And so it is even questionable whether all existing houses near dikes can remain standing in the coming decades. Haan: “It is a realistic scenario that we will have to give up homes for this type of climate control in the future.”

Despite future sea level rise, it is not the case that the west of our country will eventually become uninhabitable, as is sometimes suggested. Van der Sande: “We have the knowledge to deal with this, both when it comes to water and spatial planning. And if we convert that knowledge into solutions here, the rest of the world will also benefit from it.”

So that will cost money, a lot of money. “But what is the alternative?” says Haan. “Thanks to these investments, we can prevent a lot of damage and protect economic activity in our country. So in that sense it is an investment that always pays for itself.”

The alternative is that the Netherlands becomes a kind of Bangladesh on the North Sea, Van der Sande warns. “And please note: international insurance companies are also watching. If we are hit by floods or other calamities more often, we will also jeopardize the triple A status we currently have. And that also has major economic consequences.”