Will Spain break the pact with Waterloo? Was it the only way out against “the retrograde right”? Sánchez arrived at La Moncloa (July 2018) after the motion of censure against Rajoy. And then he agreed with Iglesias after the 2019 electoral repetition. Do you remember Rubalcaba’s ‘Frankenstein’? Now it is in the Super-Frankenstein: the agreement with the entire independence movement. What will happen with your new Government?
Its strongest point is the wardrobe. The judges Margaret Robles in Defense and Grande-Marlaska in the Interior, also the Minister of Finance (now vice president) Maria Jesus Montero and Luis Planas in Agriculture, who have been ministers since 2018 and who – not without problems – have survived all the storms. They form a faithful spine that cannot be called pro-independence. Spain is Spain, period. The vice president should be added Teresa Rivera that faces the climate crisis, but has disputes with large energy groups. Fundamentalist ‘Troppo’?
Also to Nadia Calvino, who has managed the economy and opened doors in Brussels. But someone who leaves, or can leave (to the European Investment Bank) is no longer a backbone. And his replacement is not clear. Be José Luis Escrivá? Why then have he been removed from his current position before the necessary time? Everything seems pending and with the European economy on the brink of recession, confusion is a mortal sin. Let’s add to José Manuel Albares, Foreign Minister, who is an enthusiastic deputy to the president. AND Felix Bolaños, the super minister, central defender and center forward at the same time, with the ‘impossible mission’ of passing the amnesty law, reaching an agreement with the PP and satisfying ERC and Puigdemont. He has plenty of faith in the president, but…
The amnesty, due to the torpedoing of the PP in the Senate and the objections that the judges will raise, will not be effective for many months and in the meantime the independence movement will not be able to bring down the Government that can bring it to port
Those who arrive are a mystery. The former Canarian president sounds good Angel Victor Torres for Public Administrations. He is a calm politician who will try to ensure that the popular regional presidents do not always act as a sword for the PP. And the Minister of Education and new spokesperson, Pilar Alegría, an Aragonese with ambition who must communicate without bothering the boss and not say too much without losing the hook. It generates more doubts Oscar Puente in a ministry as powerful as Transport. He does not lack wit and acuity, but perhaps his profile is more that of an implacable socialist spokesperson under a PP Government.
Let’s go to the dangers. He first will be vice president Yolanda Diaz, that after having agreed on the labor reform with the CEOE, it seems to want to correct it (against the CEOE) and at the same time multiply social spending. Complicated when Brussels already says that the Spanish fiscal situation is serious. Calvino sniffs quickly and already says (cover of ‘Expansión’): “Companies are the heart of our economy.” Will Yolanda understand it?
The second danger (second only because it is not internal) is not being able to rebuild any relationship with the PP. The Constitution cannot function without a certain consensus between the two major parties and relations between Sánchez and Feijóo are broken. Sánchez laughs out loud at Feijóo and he says that the president’s laugh has “something pathological.” That “go away Mr. González” of Aznar today seems almost a caress. We are going badly and the amnesty law will make everything worse.
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The third is the difficult and continuous negotiation with the independentists. It will not be easy, but paradoxically the opposition of the PP (and the judges) to the amnesty can help Sánchez. The effective amnesty will take time and in the meantime the independence movement will not be able to bring down the person who must bring it to port. And once the 2024 Budgets are approved (without them there is no amnesty) the Government can live for two years.
But the real danger is Podemos. In 2015 all the ‘wise men’ said that the PSOE would end up like the Greek Pasok. The ‘wise men’ erred and Podemos today only has five deputies. But Irene Montero’s complaints speak. Podemos could not vote against the investiture and thus become an accomplice of the PP. Another thing is not approving the 2024 Budgets, which can always be said to be conditioned by Brussels capitalism. And without the five Iglesias deputies there are no budgets. Sánchez and Yolanda have pulverized Podemos, but Iglesias can take revenge. And hot.