Rutte IV is dead, it’s up to the voter again. After the fall of the cabinet on Friday, the Netherlands is preparing for new parliamentary elections this fall, the second in less than three years. The longest formation ever followed the previous elections, which gave Rutte IV almost a year less time to implement effective policy. After a year and a half of reign, Rutte IV has already fallen, breakthroughs have been achieved on few major dossiers. The outgoing cabinet will look after the shop in the coming months. The elections are probably not until November, a new cabinet for next spring is not realistic. The Netherlands in 2023, a land of stagnation.
‘regrettable’
The parties of Rutte IV are dropping the cabinet while there is no clear future plan for agriculture. The ambitions for housing are lagging behind, and the ambitious climate policy will almost certainly be subject to major delays. The victims of the Supplementary Affair have not yet been properly helped, the settlement of the damage from gas extraction in Groningen is difficult. Rutte IV has let the work fall from her hands while a devastating Russian war against Ukraine is raging on the European continent, which also directly affects the security of the Netherlands.
And why exactly? Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) called the fall of his cabinet on Friday evening “regrettable”, but also spoke resignedly about “a political reality that we cannot ignore”. The migration issue is “a very big theme that people are very concerned about,” said Rutte. And although the Dutch asylum system is indeed suffering from a lack of sufficient reception places and a relatively high influx, the crisis this summer is not yet as big as in Ter Apel last year, when asylum seekers had to sleep outside. By breaking through on asylum, the parties from Rutte IV consciously choose not to solve the problems in this file in the short term. Political principles and sensitivities take precedence over the national interest, was the direct reproach of the opposition.
At the VVD congress at the beginning of June, Rutte called the fall of the cabinet “not responsible” in a time of war. On Friday, he put that into perspective: the outgoing cabinet would also “continue fully” in the coming months with “helping Ukraine as best as possible”. Because of the parliamentary support for financial and military aid to Ukraine, it is indeed to be expected that the Dutch support will continue despite the fall of the cabinet. But it is illustrative: while the war calls for a European policy of unity and decisiveness, The Hague is preoccupied with itself, turned inward and deeply divided.
‘Last Chance’
The course of events during the deadlocked negotiations of the past few days can leave deep traces on the Binnenhof. When Rutte IV took office, then ChristenUnie leader Gert-Jan Segers spoke of “the very last chance for the political center”. VVD, CDA, D66 and ChristenUnie would try again together, as middle parties that – in contrast to the parties on the left and right flank – ultimately take their responsibility and keep the Netherlands manageable. They did not succeed in this: Rutte IV fell before it could solve problems.
The role of Prime Minister Rutte is particularly striking. Where he kept his previous cabinets together as an impartial oilman, he openly speculated about a split during the asylum negotiations this week, to the shock of his coalition partners. Politicians from D66, CDA and ChristenUnie pointed to Rutte’s behavior on Friday: he had unnecessarily tightened up relations. The outgoing prime minister has taken a big gamble with this. Will the middle parties still want to work with him if he continues as VVD leader? Rutte said firmly on Friday that the “political center in this country will always survive”. But last week’s events will have seriously dampened the enthusiasm among D66, CDA and ChristenUnie to think about a Rutte V.
Rutte claimed to still have to think about his own future, but a new list leader seems likely given the sudden crisis. Rutte said that he currently “still has the energy and ideas” to remain party leader, moreover, there is still no obvious replacement at the VVD. And although confidence in Rutte among the Dutch has fallen sharply after a peak during the corona crisis, the prime minister has always had a good track record when it comes to winning campaigns.
Until last March, when the result for the VVD in the provincial elections was disappointing and the liberals lost the battle with BBB. Rutte is dragging the legacy of files such as Groningen and the Supplementary Affair with him. While he is internationally regarded as an experienced head of government in the European Union, Rutte is increasingly seen in domestic politics as part of the problem rather than the solution. A voluntary departure from Rutte could liberate the VVD and politics in The Hague and at the same time plunge into great uncertainty.
Read also: this reconstruction of the fall of the cabinet
Grumpy about the cabinet fall
In the coming weeks, the other parties will look tensely at Rutte, but will also have to make decisions themselves. Who will be candidate prime minister for BBB, and who will soon lead a joint list of PvdA and GroenLinks on the left? The answers can determine the course of the next formation. While The Hague is throwing itself into the preparations for the campaign, the rest of the country is grumpy about the fall of the cabinet. Entrepreneurs and local administrators called on the outgoing cabinet on Friday evening by governing and not too much policy hold to put. The political reality is probably different: the major problems of the Netherlands must now wait, even if they cannot actually do so.