Vladimir Putin declared martial law last week over the four Ukrainian territories illegally annexed by Russia last month. Proof that the Kremlin has no real control over Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhiaand must use his iron fist to dominate the four occupied regions of eastern and southern Ukraine, which are the focal point of the conflict.
During a meeting of the Russian security council, Putin gave emergency powers to regional leaders of the territories that Moscow annexed last month after holding rigged referendums. A measure that Ukraine and the international community do not accept. In practice, it remains unclear what will change about these four regions, which have long been highly militarized, under military occupation or in dispute with Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
The main one, analysts point out, would be a new degree of legal coverage for the military actions of the Russian high command: impunity for the leaders in case they are accused of war crimes.
Under Russian law, martial law expands the powers law enforcement has: allows the military to impose curfews; restrict freedom of movement; seize civilian property; control communications; and order the citizens to rebuild the destroyed cities.
“Martial law essentially means the suspension of normal government and the rule of law,” explained Max Bergmann, director for Europe at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It allows the military to seize civilian assets, buildings, deploy resources as needed. and essentially allows the military to make the decisions”.
What the measure lays bare, however, is that Moscow does not fully control the four regions, so it is unclear whether Russia will be able to implement the provisions effectively. According to Bergmann, the decree serves as “a formalization of much of what was already happening on the ground.” Outside, removes the masquerade that these regions had free elections and they are “happily part of Russia”. “He gets rid of the facade and says: ‘Well, we are just occupying these regions militarily.’ And that is an important sign,” the analyst said.
Moscow had not declared martial law since the Soviet Union imposed it during World War II. “During the Soviet period, Russia fought several wars, but it did so through its regular forces. He did not have to do the massive mobilization that he needs now,” Bergmann explained. “And there is a real disconnect between the propaganda that Putin has used to sell the conflict, and the sacrifices that are being asked of the Russians. The people were told that this was a special military operation and now they are mobilizing as if it were World War II.”
And this has an impact on how the Russian people have turned from support to discontent: in addition to declaring martial law, Putin imposed “response levels” in 26 regions, including Moscow, which, according to experts, could have wider repercussions at the national level.
In the Russian regions bordering Ukraine: Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk and Rostov, as well as Crimea, the restrictions impose some war measures, but they are one step below the “maximum response” that the Kremlin introduced in the occupied Ukrainian territories: the measure could mean a new level of control over industries, repurposing them to support the military.
“What we see is a kind of ‘boiling frog’ strategy, where instead of announcing a major leap in the loss of freedoms that would make the Russian public dissatisfied, Putin gradually implements them,” Bergmann said. If the declaration of martial law is successful and Russia still needs more troops and resources, “It could well expand.”
The measures taken in illegally annexed territories could also mean an increase in forced deportations of Ukrainian citizens to other regions of Russia. “Putin’s martial law in the annexed regions is a preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to other areas of Russia to replace the ethnic composition of the occupied territory,” tweeted Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine’s national security secretary. A colonization of the annexed territories that is then impossible to dissolve in case of losing the war.
Such deportations have been underway for a long time. But today they intensify: over the past weekend, all civilians were ordered to immediately evacuate the city of Khersonbefore the advance of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The order from the military was that they take “documents, money, valuables and clothing” and get ready to leave, due to “the tense situation on the front.” The Institute for the Study of American War analyzed in the same sense that the Russian call indicated that the occupiers “they do not expect a quick Russian or civilian return” to the cityand seemed to be trying to depopulate it to harm its “long-term social and economic livelihood.”
Ukrainian successes on the northern section of the front line in September, including the recapture of Izium, seem to have persuaded the Russians that they can no longer maintain forces west of the Dnipro, because their position is too vulnerable overall. Ukraine will be able to reoccupy the territories, but Putin will hold the Ukrainians in those cities hostage. The strategy that Russia has used since imperial times, and to which the leader of the Kremlin repeatedly appeals.
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