A UN study confirms that the continent will continue to warm at a faster rate than the global average
The climate in Europe is not only warming up, but much more so than the rest of the planet. Temperatures in the Old Continent have increased more than twice the world average in the last 30 years, the largest increase of all the planet’s continents. According to a new report from the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as the warming trend continues, extreme heat waves, wildfires, floods and other effects of climate change will affect society more. , economies and ecosystems.
The report on the state of the climate in Europe, prepared jointly with the Copernicus Climate Change Service, belonging to the European Union, focuses on 2021 and analyzes the evolution of the increase in temperatures, terrestrial and marine heat waves, a climate extreme, changes in precipitation patterns and retreat of ice and snow layers.
Temperatures in Europe have warmed significantly over the period 1991-2021, at an average rate of about +0.5°C per decade. The result has been a loss of 30 meters of ice thickness in alpine glaciers between 1997 and 2021.
On the other hand, the Greenland ice sheet is melting, which is decisively contributing to accelerating sea level rise. In the summer of 2021, Greenland recorded a melting event and the first rains ever recorded at its highest point, Summit Station, which is unprecedented evidence of the warming that is occurring there.
There are also reasons for hope
But it’s not all bad news. Several countries in Europe have been very successful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, in the European Union (EU) greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 31% between 1990 and 2020with a net reduction target of 55% by 2030, the report notes.
Europe is also one of the most advanced regions in transboundary cooperation for adaptation to climate change, in particular in transnational river basins. “It is one of the world leaders in the provision of effective early warning systems, which cover around 75% of the population”. As an example, the report highlights that action plans for heat waves “have saved many lives from the effects of extreme heat & rdquor ;.
But the challenges are even greater: “Europe presents a live picture of a world that is warming and it reminds us that even the most prepared societies are not safe from the impacts of extreme weather events,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas.
“In terms of mitigation, the good rate of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the region must continue and we must be more ambitious. Europe can play a key role in achieving a carbon-neutral society by mid-century and thereby fulfilling the Paris Agreement,’ said Professor Taalas.
future scenarios
Based on the data obtained and what has been seen in recent summers, catastrophes related to weather, climate and water are expected to increase in the future, according to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change (Working Group I, IPCC IE6 GTI). This document considers that there is “very high confidence” that:
Regardless of future levels of global warming, temperatures will increase in all European areas at a rate higher than the average variation global temperature, similar to what was observed in the past.
· The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, including marine heat waves, have increased in recent decades and are projected to continue to grow regardless of the greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Critical thresholds relevant to ecosystems and humans are projected to be exceeded at global warming of 2°C or greater.
· The observations have a seasonal and regional pattern consistent with the expected increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe. A decrease in summer rainfall in the Mediterranean is expected to spread to the northern regions. is anticipated that extreme precipitation events and flooding by flash floods increase with global warming levels above 1.5ºC in all regions, except the Mediterranean.
repercussions of global warming
The report updates some of the main consequences that rising temperatures are already having in Europe:
HEALTH: The health of Europeans is affected by climate change in multiple ways, including death and illness from increasingly frequent extreme weather events (heat waves), increases in zoonoses and vector-, food- or water-borne diseases, as well as mental health problems.
The deadliest extreme weather events in Europe are heat waves, especially in the west and south of the continent. The combination of climate change, urbanization, and an aging population in the region is causing, and will further aggravate, vulnerability to heat.
Climate change-induced alterations in the production and distribution of pollens and spores may lead to an increase in allergies. More than 24% of adults living in the European region suffer from various allergies as well as severe asthma, while the proportion among children in the region is 30-40% and rising. Climate change also affects the distribution of vector-borne diseases. Some examples are ticks (Ixodes ricinus), which can transmit Lyme disease and a type of encephalitis.
According to the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, around half a million premature deaths in the WHO European Region were due to anthropogenic fine particle air pollution in 2019, a significant portion of which was directly related to the burning of fossil fuels. It is estimated that 138,000 premature deaths per year could be avoided thanks to the reduction of carbon emissions, which could represent a saving of between 244,000 and 564,000 million dollars.
Children are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than adults, both physically and psychologically. According to UNICEF’s Childhood Climate Risk Index (CCRI), almost 125 million children in Europe live in countries with a “medium-high” risk (the third of the five classification levels used worldwide).
ECOSYSTEMS: Most of the damage caused by forest fires is due to extreme events for which neither ecosystems nor communities are adapted. Climate change, human behaviors and other underlying factors are creating the conditions for fires to be more frequent, intense and devastating in Europewith important socioeconomic and ecological consequences.
TRANSPORTATION: Transport infrastructure and operations are at risk both due to progressive climate change and extreme events (for example, heat waves, torrential rains, strong winds and extreme heights of waves and sea level). Much of the transport infrastructure was built based on historical values for various thresholds of meteorological events, so it is not resistant to current extremes.
Full report: State of Climate Europe 2021 | Trello
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