Hi Joost, after two days of silence, Bolsonaro made a statement on Tuesday afternoon. Why was this eagerly anticipated?
The big question was whether Bolsonaro would challenge his defeat or recognize Lula’s victory. In the past, he has often said that he could only lose if there was fraud. He has proclaimed this in many ways. In recent years, he said, among other things, that Brazil’s electronic voting system was prone to fraud.
‘In a very short speech, about 2 minutes, he still chose the democratic path. He stated that he “has always played within the lines of the constitution” and that opponents wrongly label him as “undemocratic”. He indicated that he will now also comply with the constitution, which indicates that he will not contest the result.
“He didn’t say a word about Lula, though. He did not congratulate his opponent, did not say anything about winning or losing. What he did acknowledge: his term will end in two months. Then it was his chief of staff who, in one sentence, made Bolsonaro’s message explicit: “The president has authorized me to begin the transition process.”
Why is Bolsonaro now choosing not to confront?
“It may play a role that there are a number of lawsuits against him, including for abuse of power, the spread of fake news and his disastrous corona policy. While he is still president, it will have little effect on him, but if he is gone from January 1, he could be prosecuted. Former presidents are not immune from the justice system. It also happened to Lula, also a former president. Bolsonaro may not want to throw more fuel on the fire for that reason. He calls himself a Democrat and states that he has always stayed within the confines of the constitution, which almost sounds like a legal defense.
‘But I think it’s mainly a pragmatic consideration for him. He has counted his knots and has come to the conclusion that strategically this is the best path to walk. He also emphasized in the speech that his movement has grown in parliament, that he is the leader of millions of Brazilians who stand for ‘God, family, homeland and freedom’. I remain your leader, he told his supporters. Bolsonaro is now 67, Lula is ten years older, he may just be back in four years.’
Some of Bolsonaro’s supporters initially did not accept the result and took to the streets to demonstrate. Did he have a message for them too?
Bolsonaro started his speech by thanking his voters, some 58 million. He also specifically addressed the supporters who took to the streets over the past two days. Although they were not massive protests, many thousands of people demonstrated in hundreds of places in the country. They blocked highways with cars, trucks and tires and disrupted the country. A major port was unable to operate and dozens of flights had to be canceled at an airport near Sao Paulo.
He told them that their protest stems from ‘outrage and a sense of injustice at the electoral process’. But he also said his supporters should not stoop to ‘how the left always brought the country down’, that they should demonstrate peacefully, without vandalism.
“It was a very small appeal to the protesters to hold back. Bolsonaro was under great pressure to take the sting out of the protests. People in his own political environment also insisted on it, because they saw the consequences of the actions for the country.’
Is Bolsonaro’s speech enough to restore calm?
‘It is still difficult to say what effect that will have. But I think in the Lula camp they are very happy that Bolsonaro is not contesting the result. With the tension that is already there, it could have derailed considerably. See how many of his supporters were ready to take drastic action when Bolsonaro hadn’t said anything yet. It now looks like there will be a fairly normal transfer of power. Anyway, that’s a relief for many people in Brazil.
“At the same time, for the time being it remains the case that there are thousands, tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people in Brazil who believe that these elections were rigged, they believe in a lie. Even more worryingly, Bolsonaro didn’t even have to encourage his supporters, thousands took to the streets of their own accord to demand a military coup. These are people who have completely adopted the conspiracy theories of the radical right-wing president. We saw the same in the US, where Trump fed his supporters with untruths.
So that tension remains. That group of radical supporters can continue to stir in the coming period and that can lead to incidents. But the chance of riots on January 1 during the transfer of power, such as the American Capitol storm, has decreased considerably.’