The latest survey of the CEO of the Generalitat confirms and extends the trend already indicated by EL PERIÓDICO on October 16. The PSC in first position; CKD, stable, second, and JxCat accentuates its descent. After more days of the rupture of the Government between ERC and Junts, the survey indicates that electorally ERC has not suffered any damage, since it would obtain between 30 and 36 seats (it now has 33), while Junts would drop to 19-24 compared to the current 32. Junqueras’s party could lose a maximum of three seats, while those of Borràs, Turull or Puigdemont (who knows who) would drop a minimum of eight and a maximum of 13.
In addition, Junqueras and Aragonès, with scores of 4.9 and 4, are the most valued leaders, while Puigdemont and Borràs remain at 3.8, below Salvador Illa (4.3) and Miquel Iceta (4). Thus, despite those who claimed that Aragonès had made a mistake in not attending the 9/11 demonstration and that the accusations against the Government of stopping the independence they would take their toll on him, the surveys (EL PERIÓDICO and the CEO) indicate that the formation that has suffered the most from the breakup is JxCat.
Y the radicalization of JxCat (defeat of the moderate ‘consellers’ against Borràs and Puigdemont and the thunderous silence of Jordi Turull) is harming him. If 42% of Catalans bet on independence, only 11% want a unilateral separation, while among the future voters of Junts the percentage rises to 43%, even above the 41% of the CUP. Together is like this moving away dangerously not from the Catalan centrality, but even from the independence movement.
Beyond sovereignism, the winner of the survey is the PSC of Salvador Illa, that not only increases his advantage over the Republicans, but would also win the Spanish legislative that Tardà and Rufián had won the last few times. It is remarkable, because the PSC was always doing well when the PSOE rose in Spain and now it continues to rise despite the fact that Sánchez loses strength.
But Illa’s great advantage is that the breakup of the independence bloc automatically increases your strategic strength. Now, with 33 deputies out of 135, it is almost impossible for Aragonès to approve the 2023 budgets, or govern without accumulating shameful parliamentary defeats, without some kind of deal with the PSC. In the same way that a motion of censure cannot prosper, unless the PSC and Junts present a common candidate (Torra wants it, but only to call elections), ERC will not have a moderately stable majority without Illa.
With the wind in favor in Spain, the PP resurrects in Catalonia, becomes the fourth force and goes from its current three seats to a minimum of 11
But the understanding between ERC and the PSC will not be easy either. Both of them are consolidated as the two great Catalan parties in what perhaps recalls the very imperfect CiU-PSC bipartisanship of the long stage of Pujol. And now, as then, relations will be strained because the two compete to be the dominant party and ERC can choose, like Pujol, to seek specific agreements with the PSOE that restrict the PSC. And the PSC cannot disappoint its current (and potential) electorate by compromising with speeches by Marta Rovira.
and they come the municipal elections in May, a great battle. Both parties want to win in Catalonia and Jaume Collboni and Ernest Maragall dream of conquering (or reconquering) the mayor’s office in Barcelona, which Colau does not have easy to retain.
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The CEO also confirms that the PP is back. When Feijóo has relieved Pablo Casado and the expectations of the PP rise (there are the Andalusian results and the polls), the Catalan right-wing, reluctant to Catalanism (from Vidal-Quadras and Sánchez-Camacho to Josep Piqué) returns where he was and where he supported, when necessary, Jordi Pujol. And even the first Artur Mas. The attraction of C’s has vanished, to the point that the CEO places him outside Parliament, and Vox seems to go backwards both for the resurrection of the PP and for the split of Macarena Olona, who was its invincible muse.
The consequence is that the PP would jump from its current three deputies to 11 or 16 going ahead of Vox, the CUP and the commons. And this despite the fact that they still have neither a leader nor a clear candidate for the next Catalans. Just a security they will not have Cayetana. It’s not little.