Hi Maarten, you have returned from a holiday in Germany and Luxembourg this week. Has that changed your view of how we deal with the fourth wave in the Netherlands?
‘Not really, to be honest. The restaurants there are open, but with all kinds of restrictions. So corona does not suddenly disappear across the border. In the Netherlands we think we are the soul of the day because we are the only ones with a lockdown, but in other countries there are also all kinds of restrictions.
‘In recent days, many European countries have also taken stricter measures. Sweden announced new measures on Monday, France is introducing 2G and Germany is even tightening that policy. Denmark is going to relax a bit, but the clubs will remain closed and the catering industry closes at 11 am.’
Yet the lockdown in the Netherlands is now a lot stricter than in those other countries, why is that?
‘There are a few reasons. First of all, we were of course very late with the booster vaccinations. As a result, RIVM presented calculations in mid-December that predicted a peak of 5,000 IC patients without new measures. Then the government has to intervene.
The evening lockdown was also introduced on the basis of strong forecasts about hospital occupancy. Then those predictions came true. In the delta wave of October and November, the infections and admissions went even faster than the RIVM had predicted. So you don’t just put that aside.
‘In addition, there had of course been a lot of criticism that the government often intervenes too late and too softly. The tenor was: the OMT advises, and the cabinet only partially implements those recommendations. They wanted to avoid that this time.
Moreover, the cabinet was in its last weeks. Then it’s easy to give it another big blow. Hugo de Jonge already knew he wouldn’t have to defend it afterwards.’
Fortunately, those jet-black forecasts did not materialize. What is that about?
‘Particularly because omikron really does make people less sick. The RIVM forecasts were still based on the assumption that omikron leads to just as serious a disease as delta. But it is now clear that this is not the case.
Today the cabinet will be presented with the latest calculations from the RIVM. I am very curious what it will contain, because it will determine the decisions that the cabinet makes.
‘RIVM now takes into account that omikron is milder, but I don’t know exactly how much milder people assume. I don’t think they know for sure either, so they will work with different scenarios and compare them.’
How are we doing in the Netherlands at the moment?
“The lockdown we are in has been beneficial in every way from a medical point of view. We are now in a much better position for the approaching wave than in mid-December. The influx into hospitals has been falling for more than a month.
‘At the same time, we register a ridiculous amount of infections every day. Even with the mild omikron variant, you will soon notice this in hospitals. In the past, it was mainly young people who became infected, but you can now see that it is also spreading among the elderly. We will probably not reach the peak of care utilization until the end of January.
‘You should not underestimate the impact of omikron on hospitals. Many people point to other countries to say that the hospitals will be fine. But even in England, where admissions have now passed their peak, healthcare is under great pressure. Nurses are working double shifts and people are walking on their gums.
‘The funny thing is that we are still comparing it to the first wave. Then there really was a state of emergency: everything is not so bad compared to that. But actually you have to compare it with normal crowds. Hip operations are often still not possible in the Netherlands.’
Tomorrow we will hear in a press conference how to proceed. Is there room for relaxation?
“It will be a tug-of-war. On the one hand are the ministers with an economic portfolio, who will argue for more openness. Yesilgöz of Justice will also join in, because support for enforcement is eroding. The rules are especially difficult to explain in border municipalities. I can imagine that mayors have a hard time with that.
‘On the other hand, the care ministers are pulling the strings. The hospitals are doing slightly better, but Kuipers finds it difficult to completely throw care under the bus. He was carried away from Erasmus MC a few days ago, covered with flowers.
“If I have to gamble, I say there will be some relaxation. MBO and higher education will be at the top of the list to open. There is also much to be said for outdoor sports, but then the group size must also be adjusted. You are really only allowed to be outside together now.
In addition, the OMT issued an advice on the mouth caps at the beginning of this week, which the cabinet will probably adopt. I doubt whether they want to break the ban on indoor sports, contact professions, catering and non-essential shops.
‘It could also be that the quarantine period is shortened to prevent personnel problems. Many other countries have been doing the same lately. So we’re going to look more like the rest of Europe, but that’s also because the rest of Europe is starting to look more like us.’
Finally, when will we finally achieve herd immunity?
‘Unfortunately you can write that on your stomach. The idea that you won’t get infected again after being infected has turned out to be an illusion. The trick now is to take the edge off an infection with vaccinations. You can see that in the numbers now.
‘I am optimistic about the course of this wave. With a little luck, we’ll be over the worst by March. The big question is what the next winter will look like.’