The world must “dissociate in a just, orderly and equitable manner (transitioning away) of fossil fuels in energy systems”. That is the magic formula with which Sultan Al-Jaber, chairman of the climate summit in Dubai, managed to bring together the ambitions of Europe and the resistance of the oil-producing countries in a final statement. The aim is to “accelerate actions in this critical decade to achieve net-zero emissions by around 2050, in line with the science.”
About 24 hours later than planned, this is nothing less than “a historic decision,” according to Al-Jaber. Never before has the final statement of a climate summit referred so explicitly to the end of the era of fossil energy. It took two days and nights of nerve-wracking negotiations to more or less write down what climate scientists say has long been abundantly clear: without ending the use of coal, oil and gas, it is impossible to halt climate change.
In the plenary meeting, the chairman only needed a few minutes before he bowed out to loud applause. In his subsequent speech, Al-Jaber christened the text ‘The UAE consensus‘ – the agreement of the Emirates. He praised the negotiators for their willingness to put aside their individual interests in favor of the common interest.
The outcome, according to Al-Jaber, means “a better future for humanity and the planet.” He said the deal offers the opportunity to “redefine our economies.” But he immediately issued a warning: “An agreement is only as good as its implementation. We are what we do, not what we say.”
Simon Stiell, the head of the United Nations climate agency (UNFCCC), which is responsible for the negotiation process, was also cautious. “It’s not like we’ve turned the page on fossil fuels here today,” he said. At most, it is “the beginning of the end of the fossil age.” This is far from the finish line, according to Stiell, but rather a lifebuoy that the parties must seize to increase their climate action.
Against many expectations, Al-Jaber has succeeded in completing its mission. There was widespread fear that as an oil man – he is director of Adnoc, one of the Emirati state oil companies and one of the largest oil concerns in the world – he would do everything in his power to divert attention from the use of fossil fuels, biggest stumbling block to prevent further warming of the planet. He himself considered himself the ideal person to change the minds of oil countries.
Phasing out is avoided
There is certainly something to be said about the formulations currently used. For example, moving away from fossil fuels is not the same as phasing them out. The end goal is also not explicitly about the use of coal, oil and gas, but only about their emissions. These must be zero by around 2050. This offers oil countries the space to continue oil and gas extraction in combination with the promise to prevent the greenhouse gases they cause, including by capturing and storing CO2. It is exactly what Al-Jaber was aiming for from the start, and for which he was heavily criticized.
On the other hand, the transition must be accelerated “in the next critical decade” according to the agreement. The non-binding nature – which was still present in draft versions of the final declaration – has also disappeared from the text. The proposals to reduce greenhouse gases are contained in a call for all countries ‘to contribute to global efforts’. This is quite a strong incentive for the UN and in any case it is very different from the previous proposal to voluntarily select from a number of alternatives to reduce greenhouse gases.
These global efforts also include tripling the use of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, accelerating the reduction in the use of coal that does not store greenhouse gases, accelerating the reduction of emissions of other greenhouse gases such as methane, and the accelerated reduction of emissions in the transport sector.
European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, the European Union’s chief negotiator, said he was very satisfied that the world had been able to “bridge the gap”. He spoke of “a day of gratitude” because the maximum warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius is still within reach. US climate envoy John Kerry saw the agreement as a signal that multilateralism has survived even under difficult circumstances. Kerry announced that the US and China will hold joint discussions to refine their long-term strategy.
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The agreements are particularly limited in terms of adaptation to the consequences of climate change and the financing of climate policy in developing countries. Tasneem Essop, director of CAN International, which brings together dozens of environmental organizations, said he fears vulnerable peoples and countries will be “left with the burden of financing this transition and addressing a crisis they did not create.” She called on polluting countries and companies to provide the financing required for a just transition.
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