Exactly one month before the municipal and regional elections on May 28, the political offer is already defined and we know the heads of the list, the composition of the candidacies and the pre-electoral alliances. At the regional level, the parties, in almost all cases, compete under their initials, while in the local galaxy the offer, as usual, is more diversified and there is an enormous variety of pre-election formulas. The ability of parties to present candidacies at the municipal level is an indicator of its territorial penetration, and for this reason they tend to make a lot of efforts to be present in the largest number of municipalities, which is why there are many cases of skydiving, that is, of candidates who neither reside nor have any previous connection with the municipalities in which they apply. But it’s also an indicator of the strength of the party, its potential to generate incentives and its future expectations. In Catalonia, for example, for the first time ERC, coinciding with its position as the lone government party, is the formation that presents the most candidacies, while the post-CiU conglomerate, hegemonic until recently, loses first place due to its internal division and for his departure from the Catalan government. In the state as a whole, Ciudadanos, a party in clear decline, has experienced numerous leaks, like Podemos to a lesser extent, and has not been able to maintain its municipal presence.
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And even though not all parties compete at all levels of government at stake, since elections are not held in all the autonomous communities, what happens on May 28 both at the regional and local level will condition the expectations with which the parties will go to December general elections. However, not all places are equally disputed, not all have the same symbolic importance and not all parties arrive in the same conditions. According to the surveys, the PP, which experienced a significant setback in previous electoral cycles, has positive prospects, especially since Alberto Núñez Feijóo replaced Pablo Casado, revalidated the communities of Madrid and Andalusia without dependency and Castilla y León, although these seem to have slowed down while the PSOE has recovered its pulse, so that there are disputed areas with high competitiveness, in which, it must be taken into account, other actors are also involved. Essentially, it is about the Valencian Community and the city of Valencia, Aragon, the Balearic Islands, Barcelona and, already further away from the Mediterranean arc, the cities of Seville and possibly Madrid. Therefore, what is at issue is whether any or all of the territories of the former Crown of Aragon will change hands, the battle in Barcelona being particularly relevant, since the possibilities of all parties come together there, even those of someone like Sumar, who does not attend these elections, and not only at the electoral level, but they can determine their destiny.
Right now, in Barcelona there are three options with possibilities to win the elections. The PSC with Jaume Collboni, Junts per Catalunya with Xavier Trias and Ada Colau on behalf of the Comuns, even if whoever is mayor It will depend on the post-electoral alliances. For the PSOE, recovering Barcelona would be a breath of fresh air, for Junts, a blow to the ERC and possibly also to the most radical sector of the party – as well as an incentive to recover the old convergent spirit and make it count after the general elections in clear competition with the republicans-, and Colau would serve not only to endorse his controversial work of government, but very particularly to provide a springboard for Yolanda Diaz. And even for the PP, if its votes are necessary, it can serve to show itself as a useful party capable of breaking the blocks -as it has just done with the ‘only yes is yes’ law- when the situation requires it. In Barcelona many battles are played in one And it can be a test of what happens in the future, conditioning how the parties get to the generals and what will be their role in the system. In a month we left doubts.