The American ‘midterms’ explained: what are they and why are they important? | Abroad

The ‘midterms’ are, as the word itself says, midterm parliamentary elections in the middle of the term of a president. They always take place on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. So this year it will be November 8.

The United States Parliament is also known as Congress. Like us, it consists of two parts: the House of Representatives counts 435 members, one per constituency. The more residents a state has, the more constituencies and therefore delegates. For example, the most populous state, California, has 53 counties, so it sends 53 delegates to Washington DC. Low-population states – such as Alaska or Montana – have only one district and therefore one delegate in the capital. All 435 members of the House are elected every two years.

Otherwise it is in the Senatethat but 100 members counts. Each state can send two senators to Washingtonregardless of the population. The two senators from Wyoming (population 570,000) have as much power as two senators from California (nearly 40 million inhabitants).

The senators are elected every six years, but are divided into three ‘groups’ of 33 or 34 members. Elections are held every two years for one of the three groups and thus a third of the Senate. This year it is the turn of group ‘3’ which was elected in November 2016 and consists of 34 members. So there are 34 seats at stake.

On November 8, the Americans will also elect 36 governors, several local parliaments and local officials. Additionally, in some states voters are allowed to speak out in a local plebiscite. However, we limit ourselves in this article to the federal level.

The midterm elections are traditionally a measure of the policies of an incumbent president. It’s no different for Joe Biden. But it’s more than a popularity contest. For the incumbent president to carry out his election promises and policy agenda, Democrats must retain power in Congress.

The Democrats now control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but their situation is dire. In recent months, a lot of negotiation – even within the party – had to be done to get certain laws through Congress.

In the House of Representatives, the Democrats have a slim majority of 220 seats out of 435, compared to 212 for the Republicans (and 3 vacant seats).

In the Senate, the Democratic ‘majority’ is minimal: there are 48 Democratic senators, 2 ‘independent’ senators who mostly vote with the Democrats and 50 Republican senators. In practice, therefore, it is about 50 to 50 seats. In the event of a tie, the President of the Senate decides. And that’s Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice president. Even if the Democrats lose one seat to the Republicans, they lose power in the Senate.

Traditionally, the ‘counterparty’ does relatively well in midterm elections. Barack Obama, for example, immediately lost the House in 2010, two years after his big win. The same happened to Bill Clinton in 1994. And Republican Donald Trump also lost the House of Representatives in 2018.

For Biden, the outlook is also bleak: high inflation and associated energy prices are hitting Americans’ pockets. The Republicans blame this on the money Biden sprinkled during and after the pandemic, a message that experts say will resonate with voters. In addition, Republicans complain about increased crime, immigration and alleged left-wing indoctrination in education.

The Democrats hope to mobilize many voters because of the downed abortion law and the fear of growing power from Trump-inspired Republicans. That is why Biden pulls out all the stops to warn: “In a normal year, we are not faced with the question of whether the vote we cast will preserve or threaten democracy. But this year it will,” the president said recently at a meeting of Democrats in the capital Washington DC.

Turnout in the midterms has traditionally been significantly lower than in presidential elections. 49 percent of voters showed up in the 2018 midterm elections, which was seen as a high turnout at the time. More than 61 percent of Americans voted in the 2020 presidential election.

Still, there may be a ray of hope for Democrats: In several states where voters are already allowed to vote, there were already more votes than in the run-up to the 2018 midterms, reports USAFacts, an independent American fact-checker.

Special attention is paid to the so-called ‘swing states’, where the difference between the Republican and Democratic candidates in the polls is very small. These include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Still, Republicans need to win just one more Senate seat and five more seats in the House of Representatives on Tuesday to control Congress. It is therefore highly questionable whether Republicans will still want to cooperate with laws, with the presidential elections of 2024 on the horizon. Former President Trump this week hinted “very, very likely” to run in the Republican primary.

This makes it virtually impossible for Biden to push his laws through Congress. The Democrat can then almost forget about appointing federal judges. Republicans will then do everything in their power to withhold nominations until another Republican is in the White House. Republicans could also put their own bills to the vote. Think, for example, of a nationwide abortion ban, or even the initiation of impeachment proceedings for Biden.

One possible outcome is that one party wins the House, while the other party controls the Senate. If Republicans control the House, there is a good chance that the investigation into the Jan. 6 Capitol storming will be shut down, and investigations into the actions of the Biden administration will be launched. Democrats will no longer be able to prevent that. Democrats in the Senate could still help Biden appoint judges, because that is not what the House of Representatives is about.

Should Democrats unexpectedly retain power in Congress, it will give Biden an opportunity to pass more progressive laws. In that case, Biden promised a federal law guaranteeing the right to abortion. Other Democrats’ hobbyhorses, such as better protection for the LGBTQ+ community, voting rights for minorities, a more ambitious climate policy and a more generous social safety net are also feasible.

Democrats can also prepare to limit the impact of a possible Trump or other Republican presidency in 2024. For example, they can pass laws that better protect officials from pressure from the White House and draw up a special regulation for whistleblowers.