The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is upon us and the top seeds are taking part in the action. The focus is primarily on the duel between the master and his old apprentice in San Francisco as well as the clash in the AFC between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
These are the predictions of sport.de-Editor Marcus Blumberg (previous week: 3-3, overall regular season: 164-108 / playoffs: 3-3):
NFL Predictions Divisional Round
They say NFL Playoffs Divisional Weekend is the best sports weekend of the year. And especially with a view to this weekend, it will be difficult to top this. The top seeds from both conferences take part in the action, and there is also the modern classic at the end. You can find out how this will turn out here!
Houston Texans (#4) @ Baltimore Ravens (#1) (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. live on RTL)
What a strong performance the Texans had against one of the two best defenses in the NFL? Now comes the other defense, which is in the draw here. And the question arises for me – not just in this game – how highly we should rate this surprising success of the Texans. Was it just the Browns’ weak performance or is there more to it?
There was already this duel in Baltimore at the beginning of the season and back then CJ Stroud looked slightly overwhelmed in his NFL debut with five sacks and an overall weak performance. However, as we all know, that changed dramatically over the course of the season. What is particularly noteworthy is that he was particularly weak when he was blitzed. Overall, he now has a passer rating of 112 against the blitz – in a clean pocket it is 113.7. In other words, lightning no longer has a huge effect on him.
It will be interesting to see how the Ravens deal with this knowledge, as they blitzed him on a third of his dropbacks back then. The Browns only attempted this on five of his 21 dropbacks recently, probably because they were punished badly. Stroud had 126 yards, one touchdown and a perfect rating of 158.3! However, the Ravens aren’t blitzing that much either.
On the other hand, the Texans first have to find a way to get Lamar Jackson. He doesn’t have as spectacular passing stats as Stroud, but is also elusive. He usually has forever to throw the ball (3.17 seconds on average) and scrambles a lot. A spy will have to be assigned to him. At the same time, he excelled with numerous big time throws, i.e. passes that are long and very precise. He rarely makes mistakes and therefore offers little opportunity for turnovers – if he does, they tend to come from fumbles.
The Ravens themselves are difficult to play against. They are not particularly efficient, but they are effective. They bring a brutality that others don’t have to the same extent. They play with great self-confidence at all levels. While I think the Texans can make a few pinpricks, you won’t catch the Ravens making the coverage mistakes that Cleveland made. Overall, the Ravens should still be a bit too big for the young Texans team.
Tip: Texans @ Ravens 23:31
Green Bay Packers (#7) @ San Francisco 49ers (#1) (Sunday, 2:15 a.m. live on RTL)
The biggest shocker of the first round was certainly the Packers’ clear away win in Dallas. Jordan Love and Co. particularly impressed offensively with a very good plan. But they also benefited from Cowboys who simply didn’t seem well prepared and then got in their own way in play-calling for long stretches – Bravo, Mike McCarthy!
Kyle Shanahan probably won’t give the Packers such a gift. Rather, he sends his well-oiled offensive machine into the race, which gets its engine back with Christian McCaffrey. He has recovered from his Week 17 calf injury and is ready for the next battle.
But it will generally be interesting to see how Shanahan and his former assistant coach Matt LaFleur act against each other now that they are both using sharp weapons again. In recent years, one of the two has always had the upper hand in terms of personnel. This year it’s the Niners again on paper, but the Packers can probably keep up offensively.
Because of their coaches, both teams have a similar approach with outside zone rushing schemes, lots of pre-snap motion and receivers who are particularly dangerous after the catch. However, no offense was more efficient than that of the 49ers, especially when it was not countered with brutal force. I would primarily describe both teams as finesse teams and that’s why I see the Niners ahead, because no one “out-finesses” the Niners.
Tip: Packers @ 49ers 25:34
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#4) @ Detroit Lions (#3) (Sunday, 9 p.m. live on RTL)
Respect for the Buccaneers’ performance is appropriate, but one should not forget what a shambles the Eagles were in recent weeks and really until the bitter end on Tuesday night. This team is at the end in the current configuration and the Bucs have taken advantage of that with solid means. If the receivers hadn’t made four drops, who knows whether things wouldn’t have turned out even more clearly.
But the Bucs remain a team that isn’t really as good as it looked in the Wild Card Game. They are quite limited and probably won’t be able to repeat what they did against Matt Patricia’s defense against a functioning defense. The Lions certainly have one, but above all they have an offense that has a concept and doesn’t deliver disjointed plays that could give the impression that preparation was completely foregone.
What I mean is: The Lions will pose a much greater challenge for Tampa Bay in front of their home crowd than the Eagles did. The Lions had to tremble for a long time against the Rams, but this should give them a boost. They finally got their first playoff win in ages, the city and the stadium must have tasted blood again and with the momentum they are heading into the NFC Championship Game – it would also be the first time since the 1991 season.
Tip: Buccaneers @ Lions 21:27
Kansas City Chiefs (#3) @ Buffalo Bills (#2) (Mon., 12:30 a.m. live on RTL)
He’s we go again! The Bills will face the Chiefs in the playoffs. The only difference from the previous two duels? The game takes place in Orchard Park/New York. For the first time ever, Patrick Mahomes will play an away game in the playoffs. And it’s going to be hot once again because Josh Allen is in top form.
But the main question will be whether the same can be said of its defense, because the hospital is getting bigger and bigger in Buffalo. Most recently, cornerback Christian Benford (knee), linebacker Terrel Bernard (ankle) and cornerback Taron Johnson (concussion) were affected. In addition, wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) was out on Monday. It is unclear for all of them whether they can play against KC.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, are relatively healthy, which especially applies to their defense, which is probably the main reason why they are still in the race. However, Mahomes’ simplified offense has recently stabilized a little, and wide receiver Rashee Rice in particular is growing more and more into the role of Mahomes’ number 1 receiver – alongside Travis Kelce, of course.
However, the question arises here as to whether the Chiefs are really as good as they recently seemed. In any case, the Dolphins were not an equal opponent. Miami away, in primetime and at the The cold is simply a completely different team than at home and under bright skies. And Allen in top form is something other than Icicle Tua.
In Week 14, the Bills managed a 20-17 win in Kansas City. The Chiefs were on the verge of turning the game around at the end – once again – but it ultimately failed because Kadarius Toney was unable to line up in accordance with the rules.
What still stuck from back then: Both quarterbacks acted relatively cautiously and tended to rely on shorter passes. We could see that from Allen again, especially since the Chiefs secondary is very dangerous and covers tight. For the Bills, it will probably also depend on the personnel in the secondary to what extent Mahomes attempts longer passes. An advantage for KC will be that, unlike back then, Isiah Pacheco will be there again. He was out at the time. And the run game could be a widely used tool on Sunday – on both sides.
In the end it will be really tight and overtime shouldn’t be ruled out – but this time with both teams having the ball at least once. Due to home advantage and Allen’s form, I’m betting on Buffalo this time, which is actually the better team.
Tip: Chiefs @ Bills 23:26
Marcus Blumberg