Champions League contenders versus promoted teams, fifth versus twelfth in the table, squads of millions against a team of nobodies: the signs before the 99th Revierderby in the Bundesliga between Borussia Dortmund and FC Schalke 04 are actually clear.
Actually. Because on closer inspection, not everything speaks for the big favorite BVB. Five reasons why Schalke wins in Dortmund:
Tailwind vs. tired legs
For Schalke 04 goes into the second derby round. Last Saturday, the Knappen won the “small” Revierderby 3-1 against VfL Bochum. It was only the first win of the season for the Royal Blues. The emotional success gives tailwind for the most important match of the season so far.
Schalke deserved to be able to play a derby again for a year, explained coach Frank Kramer in the run-up to the BVB duel. The team will enter the lawn with a “feeling of happiness”.
The Royal Blues have performed well away from home this season. Schalke drew twice against VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg but were closer to victory than the hosts.
On the other hand, BVB will certainly have heavy legs against their archrival. Dortmund lost 2-1 to Manchester City in an exhausting Champions League game on Tuesday.
The black and yellow collapsed in the last ten minutes. The English, in the person of Erling Haaland, took advantage of this ice cold.
It wasn’t the first time this season that Dortmund gave up a win in the closing minutes. On the third day of the Bundesliga match, BVB lost a 2-0 lead against Werder Bremen in the closing stages and then lost 3-2.
In the phase in which BVB’s strength dwindles, Sebastian Polter usually enters the field for Schalke. The attacker, who moved from VfL Bochum to Gelsenkirchen in the summer, is currently only a joker.
However, an impressive statistic should warn the black and yellow: In his last three games against BVB, the 31-year-old scored four goals.
In both matches between Bochum and Dortmund last season, Polter scored to give VfL the lead, BVB didn’t win either game.
Polter scored twice against BVB in 2018
Almost four years ago, the then second division club Union Berlin brought BVB to the brink of an embarrassing second round defeat in the DFB Cup. Back then, Polter was successful with a brace. Only a penalty from Marco Reus in extra time saved Dortmund.
In the Revierderby, Polter may act as a second striker alongside top dog Simon Terodde – and could again become a BVB fright.
Gregor Kobel is Dortmund’s safe support. The Swiss kept his clean record in four of his six appearances. But a muscle fiber tear is currently stopping the 24-year-old. He will be absent at least until the beginning of October.
Substitute Alexander Meyer celebrated a successful debut in BVB dress in the 3-0 win against FC Copenhagen. But in the two following games, the keeper from Regensburg conceded a total of five goals.
BVB’s number two could not be absolved of any blame for the long-range shot by ManCity defender John Stones.
In his three appearances, Meyer blocked exactly 50 percent of all shots that came to his chest. The Bundesliga record is almost 88 percent for Yann Sommer. Even Schalke’s keeper Alexander Schwolow, who is by no means always in the saddle, has a rate of 65 percent.
Despite everything, Meyer is not a bad keeper, but compared to Kobel he reveals a weakness in the BVB team. Schalke should sense the chance.
… “always” beat the quality, that’s Dietmar Hamann’s formula before the Revierderby.
The “Sky” expert did not want to deny BVB the mentality under any circumstances. In decisive situations, however, the Dortmunders simply lack the necessary consistency and concentration – another point that could speak for Schalke.
The fact that only the two reserve keeper Ralf Fährmann and Michael Langer have derby experience in the S04 squad can be a disadvantage for the guests at Signal Iduna Park. But it could also have a positive, unneeded effect.
Frank Kramer explained in advance that the special game would be “not approached with routine”. The newly assembled Schalke team is “curious” and full of “positive emotions”.
In the ideal case, the referee does not decide the game. The appointment of the team for the Revierderby should give the Knappen some courage.
dr Felix Brych will lead the game between Dortmund and Schalke. The experienced FIFA referee has officiated 321 games in the German upper house, including four derbies.
The positive aspect from the royal blue point of view: The last two BVB duels under Brych’s leadership were not lost. Schalke defied their big rivals with a 0-0 draw.
Tom Kuehner