That something took place at the Kremlin seems certain. But what and by whom? These are the theories

“For Moscow.” “For the Kremlin.” This was written in marker on the debris of a Russian Iranian-made drone that was intercepted somewhere in Ukraine on Thursday. With a major drone attack on Ukraine, Russia seems to be immediately avenging itself for a suspected drone attack on the Moscow Kremlin, a day earlier.

Much is still unclear about that attack. Video images released by Russia itself show that something comes flying and then explodes. This happened just above the roof of the Senate Palace, the presidential office building in the Kremlin.

Recorded video images of the fireball and the burning roof dome are circulating online from various angles. Photo press agencies took a photo in daylight showing slight damage to the surface. It seems certain that something happened. But from where, with what and by whom the attack was committed, is by no means certain.

The Institute for the Study of War analyst team, which closely follows developments surrounding the war, is more certain: “Russia probably staged this attack.”

Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack. The Kremlin even spoke of a direct attack on the life of President Vladimir Putin. Such a statement could provide domestic justification for a Russian attack on the Ukrainian center of power and mobilize the population.

No assassination attempt

The drone attack, carried out with two drones, was not an attempt on the life of the Russian president. First of all because of the time; after 1 a.m. the president is not logically present in his office and no footage has surfaced that would indicate that he was there.

“If you really want to kill Putin, then this is not a promising method,” says Jacco Dominicus of the Netherlands Aerospace Center. He refers in particular to the placement and size of the explosive. “I was not very impressed by the fireball.” He calls the explosion comparable to “a hand grenade or a mortar. If you really want to take out someone with something like that, the weapon must end up within a few meters of that person.”

Ukraine itself denies, but it cannot be ruled out that Kyiv is behind the attack. The country has drones that could cover the distance from the Ukrainian border to Moscow, about 500 kilometers. Ukraine has also previously carried out attacks on Russian military targets hundreds of kilometers from the border. Documents leaked from the Pentagon a few weeks ago also showed that Ukraine had far-reaching plans for an attack on Moscow. Kyiv waived this at the request of the US.

There are caveats, however: Dominicus points out that it is “a long way” for a drone to fly through a heavily defended airspace. “I don’t think it very likely that such a drone will go unnoticed and no action will be taken,” says Dominicus.

Two drones

Baza, a Russian medium with sources in the security services, states that two drones were indeed spotted outside Moscow on Tuesday night, but that no action was taken. According to Baza’s sources, the drones flew very low, but local emergency services decided that there was “drone hysteria”. Only when the drones flew over Moscow’s outer ring road would it have been realized that something was actually going on. “Due to the late hour and the May holiday, there was no immediate response,” said the source. Fifteen minutes later, the drones hit.

A third theory, which also lacks factual support, is that the attack originated with local ‘partisans’. In that case, the drone has taken off in Russia, which reduces the chance that it will be discovered along the way. The partisan theory is propounded by Ilya Ponomarev, a former Russian politician living in exile in Kyiv. Ponomarev also considers the deadly attacks on Russian propagandists Daria Dugina and Vladlen Tatarsky , in Moscow and Saint Petersburg respectively, to be the work of partisans. As for the new claim, Ponomarev also offered no evidence to support it at the time.

Military targets in Russia

Albeit without a clear sender, the violence of war is increasingly moving towards Russia. In recent weeks, the country has been rocked almost daily by attacks, presumably by Ukrainian drone attacks. Targets are usually oil storage sites or installations used by the Russian military. The Ukrainian authorities never directly claim the attacks, but they regularly refer to them.

Read also: When will the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive start?

Last weekend, for example, a huge fire broke out in a number of oil tanks in Sevastopol, the Russian-occupied port city in Crimea. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the depot was used to store fuel for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Ukrainian army spokesman Natalia Humenyuk said the fire was part of “preparations” for the spring offensive that would be imminent. “Undermining the logistics” of the Russians is one of the elements with which the Ukrainian army is preparing for the counteroffensive.

The increased attacks and the threat of a Ukrainian counter-offensive are creating a tense atmosphere in Russia. The normally celebratory nationalist military parades held annually on May 9 have been canceled in 21 cities for security reasons.

It is the day when Russia commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany. In his speech last year, Putin said that the Russian army was fighting in Ukraine “so that there is no place in the world for butchers, murderers and Nazis”.

The parade will continue in Moscow. The video of the drone attack on the Kremlin shows that the public stands are already set up.