Tesla has recorded strong growth rates in recent years. But the electric car manufacturer apparently cannot maintain this pace. This means that the ambitious group goals are also wobbling.
• Tesla probably cannot maintain its growth target
• Musk admits the goal is too ambitious
• Tesla’s IR manager sees Tesla between two waves of growth
In March 2023, Tesla boss Elon Musk set an ambitious growth target for his company. In his “Master Plan 3” Musk announced that Tesla would become the largest car manufacturer in the world by 2030. By then, 20 million Teslas would roll off the production line in the company’s Gigafactories every year, which would be twice as many Currently the largest car manufacturer, Toyota, has production in its factories every year.
Achieving this goal is likely to cost Tesla a lot of money: CFO Zach Kirkhorn expects the current investment amount to be necessary to increase sixfold.
Tesla’s goals too ambitious?
As part of the latest balance sheet presentation, Tesla once again reaffirmed its growth ambitions, with 1.8 million vehicles to be produced in 2023. But Musk backtracked on the growth necessary for the 2030 target during the report presentation: The Tesla boss admitted that his earlier comments about overall growth of 50 percent by the end of the decade were too optimistic.
And more skeptical voices have also recently been heard from investors regarding the growth targets set by Musk. Gene Munster, co-founder of the asset manager Deepwater Asset Management, also believes that the 50 percent growth target is difficult to achieve – this means that the long-term goal of 20 million vehicles produced per year, which is based directly on the promised growth, is also at risk. The probability that growth will only increase by around 25 percent in 2024 is significant. This makes achieving the 20 million target practically unrealistic. A realistic expectation is an overall growth of 30 to 40 percent over the entire current decade, said Deepwater after presenting its most recent quarterly balance sheet.
Similar sounds could also be heard from Gary Black. The fund manager explained on the “X” platform that “no one” expects Tesla to reach its production target of 20 million vehicles by 2030. “My own forecast for 2030 is 10 million, and the consensus for winter 2030 is 6.3 million. So since capacity today is 2.3 million, TSLA needs 7.7 million new ones over the next seven years Capacity – or 6-8 new plants plus expansion in Austin, Berlin and Shanghai,” said the expert.
No one expects $TSLA to get to 20M production by 2030. My own 2030 forecast is 10M, and WS 2030 consensus is 6.3M. So with capacity today at 2.3M, $TSLA needs 7.7M of new capacity over the next 7 years – or 6-8 new plants plus expansion at Austin Berlin and Shanghai. https://t.co/CGq8rUgtvg pic.twitter.com/IghHnXqi5s
– Gary Black (@garyblack00) November 19, 2023
Tesla’s IR manager confirms growth fears
With Martin Viecha, who is responsible for looking after investors at Tesla, a prominent voice from Tesla itself is now apparently in the same vein. At a Deutsche Bank auto conference, the IR manager told institutional investors that Tesla was now “in a middle phase of low growth,” according to a note to Deutsche Bank clients quoted by Bloomberg.
Viecha later fleshed out his statements on Platform which will be powered by the next generation vehicle.”
It is unclear when the dip in growth will be overcome and the next wave of growth will begin. The electric car manufacturer is remarkably tight-lipped about the next generation of Tesla vehicles and, in particular, the time frame for the possible start of production.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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