Military provocations, panic-mongering, calls for the protection of Russian-speaking citizens, accompanied by a relentless stream of fake news and half-truths thrown into the world by the Russian state media. The escalation of the conflict around the Eastern Ukrainian ‘people’s republics’ of Donetsk and Luhansk, which started on Friday, seems to be proceeding according to a tried-and-tested Kremlin scenario.
Great confusion arose Friday afternoon when the separatist leaders of the ‘People’s Republics’ of Donetsk (DNR, led by Denis Pushilin) and Luhansk (LNR, led by Leonid Paschnik) almost simultaneously published a video message urging the civilian population to evacuate due to an imminent attack by the Ukrainian army.
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That call sparked great unrest among civilians in the area, and raised fears of a Russian attack in Ukraine and internationally. The Russian government, through Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov, initially said it knew nothing.
That same evening, the metadata of the videos showed that those had already been recorded two days earlier, reinforcing suspicions that the separatists, on the instructions of the Kremlin, are preparing a “false flag” operation: a chain reaction of incidents as a pretext for Russian military intervention in the Donbas. That in turn could lead to the deployment of the large force – the White House spoke in a final estimate of 190,000 soldiers – which Russia has stationed on the Ukrainian border and in Belarus. The Americans already warned of such a scenario on Thursday.
‘Russian propaganda’
The Ukrainian government, in turn, opened all channels on Friday to spread the message that no military action was taken on the Ukrainian side and that all reports about it are fake. “We categorically refute the reports of Russian propaganda about the alleged offensive operations by Ukraine or sabotage in the chemical industry. Ukraine is not planning any actions in the Donbas. We are committed to a diplomatic settlement.” Foreign Minister Dmytro Koeleba wrote on Twitter†
Earlier, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said it did not consider a Russian attack likely. The Ukrainian army reported 66 ceasefire violations on Friday, but the (recently thinned) OSCE monitoring mission in Ukraine reported 500 incidents, including explosions. A major explosion Friday evening in the Luhansk region is said to have been caused by a possible sabotage action at the Druzhba oil pipeline. On Saturday morning it was announced that a Ukrainian soldier was killed near Donetsk.
Mobilization
In the night from Friday to Saturday, Russian and international media reported the arrival of the first evacuees in the city of Rostov on the Russian side of the border. A state of emergency was declared there on Saturday and is said to have received 1,500 people so far, including 600 children. There were also plans to receive evacuees from other parts of Russia, including in the East Siberian republic of Yakutsk.
Meanwhile, separatist leader Pushlin in Donetsk ordered the mobilization of combat-age men aged 18 to 55, and banned them from leaving the area. He called on them to protect “their families, the Donbas and all Russian people.”
President Vyacheslav Volodin of the Russian parliament, the State Duma, on Saturday added fuel to the fire by Ukrainian President Zelensky there. on his Telegram channel of leading “a great war.” “Russia does not want war, but is willing to stand up for the citizens of the Russian Federation and compatriots in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics if their lives are threatened,” Volodin wrote.
‘Strategic tension’
On the other side of Europe, in Munich, the annual Security Conference of the G7 countries, representatives of the European Union and Ukrainian President Zelensky began. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned there that the Kremlin is “undermining the entire European security infrastructure”. Russia has not been invited to the meeting for the first time.
Instead, President Putin is busy this weekend with military exercises being held across Russia. Exercise launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles take place.
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The big question is whether the rapidly rising temperature can be tempered through diplomatic means, whether the events are indeed a planned prelude to a Russian military attack on Ukraine, possibly even on the capital Kiev, about which US President Biden has been warning for weeks.
It does not seem a logical step, since military intervention by Russia is a serious violation of the agreements in the Minsk peace talks, which Russia is insisting on. Last week, President Putin rejected a proposal by the State Duma to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics precisely because recognition would be a violation of the Minsk agreements.
That is exactly the strategy that political analyst Dmitri Trenin, head of the Moscow think tank Carnegie Center, sees on the Russian side. “Moscow’s goal in the Donbas seems to be to force Ukraine to talk directly with Donetsk and Luhansk in order to eventually implement the Minsk agreement. Russia’s nuclear weapons exercises are a message to the US so that it puts more pressure on Kiev. We see here a doctrine of strategic tension.” according to Trenin†
Until now, Russia has indeed preferred to operate remotely, using the separatists as a secure proxy and lightning rod. Moscow therefore continues to reiterate that it is open to diplomatic talks – such as the one next week, when US and Russian foreign ministers Blinken and Lavrov will meet. But with the speed of events, the question is whether Russia still cares about its international reputation.