It’s been more than a decade to find out what will be the true economic policy of SpainOne must refer to the documents sent by the Government of the day to the EU where it is explained what must be done but is intended to be hidden because it is unpopular. Agusti Sala has scrutinized this year’s report that was launched last Friday and that includes the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance to comply with the fiscal rules that will be in force again from 2024. The Government publicized the beauty of the plan: it is expected to create one million jobs and the deficit will be tamed to 3% in the 2024 budgets, sooner than they intend to demand the frugal countries of the EU. But, now, we also know that this will be done based on increase the tax burden at a rate of one tenth of GDP each year, 1,320 million more taxes each year. To some it will seem little, but it already adds up to more than 40% of GDP, that is, 4 out of every 10 euros of wealth created in Spain is spent by the State annually. Although the ministry argues that it is the result of economic dynamism and the fight against fraud, the truth is that both factors also increase the denominator so that there is something else and that something else is that it is not contemplated to deflate taxes to counteract inflation that in 2022 gave the State 10,000 million more income after deducting the expenses of the aid that was given to stop it.
The tax debate It will be very important in the coming years. The pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine have supported the growth of public spending and it makes sense after the years of austerity. But social democracy would do very well at this time reread Tony Judt when he explained the rise of neoliberalism in the 80s of the last century. Fiscal maximalism in one sense or another is a mistake. The basic question is efficiency. State costs must grow at the pace of the real economy to have a neutral effect. If they grow at the rate of inflation, the only thing they do is withdraw money from the pockets of citizens, also from workers who, according to the unions, would prefer to have their salaries raised.