China has concluded a three-day military exercise around Taiwan. In operation ‘Joint Sword’, heavy war equipment was deployed such as fighter planes, missiles and naval ships. The world is holding its breath as a real war for Taiwan is feared. Then the West will be stuck with a ‘second Ukraine’.
1. It is not the first time that there has been a rumor about Taiwan, is it?
As early as 1995, when the then president of Taiwan visited the US, China was furious and fired several missiles at the archipelago. The tense situation exploded again after a visit to the island by top Democratic politician Nancy Pelosi last year. Also then it came to a large-scale military exercise by China. Now the fuse has been lit by a meeting in Washington between Taiwanese President Chai Ing-wen and Speaker of the House of Representatives Republican Kevin McCarthy. Beijing immediately makes it clear that any diplomatic rapprochement with Taiwan is highly undesirable.
2. It always seems to fizzle out, so why worry now?
The West fears that President Xi wants to follow the example of his ‘friend’ Vladimir Putin and aspires to a real invasion, although Beijing invariably denies this. However, the West points to Xi’s massive investment in modernizing his army and making it one of the most powerful armed forces in the world, after the US. With NATO, in which the US is by far the most important military force, busy with Ukraine, this would be an ideal time for Beijing to launch an invasion. Whether the US can handle a war on two fronts is doubted even within US defense circles. In fact, any military “exercise” by China around Taiwan is now viewed by the Pentagon as a dress rehearsal for an ingestion.
3. How do people see the situation in Taiwan and can it militarily have something to say against its big neighbour?
Remarkably, the Taiwanese people are less concerned about the Chinese threat than the Western intelligence services. From a numerical point of view, it seems impossible that Taiwan can defend itself. For example, Beijing has more than 2 million troops ready to fight against less than 170,000 from Taiwan and 3350 fighter planes against 650 ‘fighters’ from Taipei and 86 naval ships against 26 and so on. But the war in Ukraine has taught us that an unyielding adversary can be difficult.
4. Why is the US in particular so concerned about the archipelago?
In fact, it is less about Taiwan than about world domination and a clash of the democratic system with an autocratic system. Like Putin in Ukraine, President Xi can hardly bear the fact that nearby (Taiwan is 100 km from the Chinese coast) a democratic and economically successful archipelago is flourishing. That could undermine his own credibility. Taiwan is actually part of a ring of countries around China where the US has influence, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines. If Taiwan ‘falls’, that protective layer, including the American base in Guam, is vulnerable.
5. Should the Netherlands and Europe also be concerned about Taiwan?
In the war in Ukraine, Europe has so far formed a fairly closed front. It is also on the border of NATO and the EU. There would be less enthusiasm for a possible battle for Taiwan. French President Macron has already hinted that the EU may have to steer its own course, but then the relationship with its ally the US will be put on edge. On the surface, Taiwan, which is roughly the size of the Netherlands and has a population of 23.6, seems insignificant, but it is an economic powerhouse that accounts for 65% of the world’s production of microchips – needed for everything from a refrigerator to a fighter jet. Those who want to be more independent from China would like that capacity not to fall into the hands of Beijing.