The elections held in Taiwan on January 13 they are not only fundamental for its future but also for stability in the strait that separates it from the People’s Republic of China and therefore for world peace. These elections plan the scenario in which relations between Beijing and Washington and their options for confrontation or coexistence are debated. Officially, neither China nor the United States vote, but neither hides their preferences nor the consequences that, in his opinion, the polls will have.
Vice President Lai Ching-te, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (PDP), is the favorite. The opposition’s failure to present a single candidate eases the path of the independence candidate and aggravates the volatile situation in the strait. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the People’s Party of Taiwan (PPT), close to Beijing, respect the call ‘1992 Consensus’ between China and Taiwan, according to which there is “one China” and two interpretations of it. The PDP rejects it.
lThe war in Ukraine has strengthened the conviction in the communist leadership that the United States “uses Taiwan as a pawn to stop China.” Hence, the eventual victory of the independentists will be seen as the prelude to a greater conflict, that could be released accidentally or If red lines on sovereignty are crossed of the island.
The return of geopolitics has opened a chasm between Washington and Beijing, in which Taiwan appears as the salvation board for one or the other in a zero-sum game. On the one hand, Chinese assertiveness; on the other, the growing hostility of the United States towards the People’s Republic reflected in the trade war unleashed by Trump and in the technological and ideological wars of Biden, who seeks to divide the world between democracies and autocracies.
Existential question
For the Chinese Communist Party, the so-called ‘rebel island’, refuge of the nationalists after losing the civil war in 1949, It is “an existential question, of life and death.” Beijing insists that it wants peaceful reunification, but maintains that it will resort to force if they try to prevent it and change the ‘status quo’. Colonized by Japan after the first war against China (1894-1895), The CCP sees the regrouping as the closing of the “century of humiliation,” when foreign powers brought the Central Empire to its knees.
For the US, this unification would mean the end of its hegemony in Asia. Both because of Taiwan’s technological potential, which includes the world’s leading manufacturer of advanced microchips, TSMC, and because the Chinese Navy would have free access to the Pacific. The American, on the contrary, would suffer limitations in defending its allies, Japan and South Korea.
In the November meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, The Chinese president asked his American counterpart to stop arming Taiwan, assured him that China is not preparing for an imminent invasion, that “reunification is unstoppable” and warned him that the island is the “biggest and most dangerous” problem. of bilateral relations. Biden insisted that Beijing should refrain from interfering in Taiwan’s elections and stressed that the US respects the “one China” principle.
Before breaking diplomatic relations with Taipei to establish them with Beijing in 1979, Washington promised to supply Taiwan with weapons to defend itself, but left the decision of whether or not to support it if it is invaded in “strategic ambiguity.” Beijing’s discomfort is due to the fact that Biden has said on three occasions that the US would assist Taiwan, although the White House later denied it all three times.
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The CCP fears that the independentists, who have governed since 2016, will become emboldened if they win again and, encouraged by “foreign forces”, cross the red line that triggers a military conflict or blockade. Lai, more radical than Tchai Ing-wen, has pledged to follow the president’s moderate path, which includes avoiding moves that lead to ‘de jure’ independence.
Chinese clumsiness filled the electoral path of the KMT and the PPT with stones. The latest white paper on Taiwan policy, dated August 2022, removes the previous commitment not to station People’s Liberation Army troops on the island in the event of reunification. Nor does it mention, as the text published in 2000 indicated, that Taiwan would be granted “a high degree of autonomy.” They don’t have it easy, the Taiwanese will have to think three times who they give their vote to.