Why does Nancy Pelosi want to go to Taiwan?
Such a visit crowns the career of this 82-year-old Democrat, who secured the loyalty of her American-Asian supporters by criticizing China’s one-party state. After the taboo on visits to Taiwan by American dignitaries disappeared under the Trump administration, Pelosi wanted to go to Taiwan in April to support the island.
Beijing regards Taiwan as its own territory, which must be brought under Chinese rule by military means if necessary.
At the time, Beijing reacted so furiously that it was fine with Washington that a covid infection had Pelosi at home. Although nothing has been officially confirmed, Pelosi will travel to Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia in early August, with a possible stopover in Taiwan.
Why is Washington getting cold feet?
Both the Pentagon and national security adviser Jake Sullivan see “unprecedented” risk of unpredictable Chinese military counteractions. In Pelosi’s words, “Defense is afraid they’re going to shoot down our plane or something.”
Beijing is always buzzing at foreign meddling with Taiwan, but Pelosi’s timing and position are an explosive combination. Pelosi is second in line for the succession if Biden were to drop out. Beijing finds that eerily close to semi-presidential status. Hence, China was also furious when Newt Gingrich, the first Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in 1997. It helped that Gingrich visited mainland China first and China, much weaker at the time, was looking for better relations with the US.
That time is over. According to US and Taiwanese defense analysts, the Chinese military is approaching the point where it will have enough resources to overwhelm Taiwan militarily before US aid arrives.
With relations with Washington at an all-time low and bolstered by friendship with Russia that also provides for military cooperation, the temptation to do something is real for Chinese President Xi Jinping. He has to take into account hardliners in the army and the communist party. Given the third term Xi is looking to land this fall, he cannot afford a second of weakness.
Hence the populist state newspaper Global Times speculates that the Chinese Air Force will “escort” Pelosi’s plane, especially if she is traveling with a military aircraft. This threat is accompanied by dire warnings through Chinese ‘private channels’, such as the British business newspaper Financial Times reported. If they are deployed, Beijing is serious; that impresses Washington more than bellicose rhetoric.
What now?
Biden finds it difficult to keep Pelosi at home, but constitutional subtleties about their division of roles are not for Beijing. In Chinese eyes, this is yet another provocation by the US. Under Trump, Washington began tinkering with the diplomatic framework that steered tensions around Taiwan for decades.
For China, the One China Policy is sacred. The US recognizes Beijing as the lawful Chinese government and takes cognizance of Chinese claims to Taiwan without assenting. A deal of diplomatic agreements further regulates informal relations between Washington and Taipei. That framework is showing wear and tear, much like the traditional US strategic ambiguity as to whether Washington will actually go into war if China attacks Taiwan. Biden has said several times to defend Taiwan.
Is there a way out of this crisis?
Not really. Both sides feel compelled to show their determination in the Taiwan Strait. Military exercises form a grim backdrop: while the Taiwanese people learn the fastest way to the bomb shelters, China participates in a huge international Russian exercise in which army units from 37 countries compete against each other.
The only bright spot is a call appointment between Biden and Xi later this week. Xi makes no concessions on Taiwan, but Biden could reassure Xi. For example, by repeating that he does not want an independent Taiwan.
The chances of success are slim, as Biden suffers from noisy meddling by Republican hawks. They are clamoring for the establishment of diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the final nail in the coffin of the One-China policy. Mike Pompeo, who visited Taipei as a former foreign minister earlier this year and now aims for the presidency in 2024, is adding fuel to the fire by Twittering Pelosi to offer to fly to Taiwan together.
Who draws the short end?
All scripts are going bad for Taiwan. The unrealistic scenario is that the US exaggerates the threat, as Biden puts better relations with China over solidarity with Taiwan. Not a good prospect for Taiwan.
If Pelosi continues her visit, Beijing will take it out on Taiwan. For example, by testing the fighting spirit of the People’s Liberation Army with military exercises, such as amphibious landings near the Taiwanese islands just off the Chinese coast.
A cancellation from Pelosi makes other Taiwan-friendly politicians so nervous that they no longer dare to go to the island. Then Taiwan will sink deeper than ever into international isolation. Moreover, Beijing will then know even better with what pressure the American Taiwan policy can be influenced.