The Social Democrats met on Sunday to pass the final verdict on whether Sweden should give up its formal neutral status after more than 200 years. With the positive response from her party, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson can formally apply for membership next week.
The reason for the decision is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many Swedes now believe that it is too great a risk to remain militarily independent. What also plays a role is that Finland, Sweden’s neighbor and defense partner, chooses NATO with conviction. On Sunday, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced that Finland will apply for membership. Polls show that three quarters of Finns are in favor of joining NATO.
In Sweden, the issue is more sensitive. Polls show that half of Swedes support the decision and about a quarter are against it. Many Swedes are proud of their independent position, which has saved them from war for more than two centuries. Until now, for the ruling Social Democrats, freedom of alliance has been an important party principle. This is partly because the Social Democratic Prime Minister Olof Palme strongly criticized the American war in Vietnam in the 1970s. It strengthened members’ belief that Sweden had no business in a military alliance led by the United States. Within the party there is also a lot of aversion to nuclear weapons.
Just like in Finland, the war in Ukraine appears to be a tipping point. “The reality is that if Russia turns against us, we cannot defend ourselves,” party leader Daniel Suhonen recently told de Volkskrant. “The risk of being attacked by staying outside NATO now seems greater to me than provoking Russia by joining.”
There was already a narrow majority in the Swedish parliament for joining NATO. After the turn of the social democrats, there is broad support in the parliament. The next step is for Sweden to formally apply for membership. It will probably do that together with Finland.
Experts expect severe repercussions from Moscow, ranging from cyber-attacks to weapons clattering at the border with Finland. The greatest risks lie in the period between the application for NATO membership and its ratification. During that period, which could last up to a year and a half, Finland and Sweden are not yet formally protected by the alliance.
In recent weeks, several NATO countries, including the United States, have therefore provided Finland and Sweden with informal security guarantees. On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson went a step further during a visit to Sweden and Finland by putting the security guarantees on paper. The prime minister promised to help Sweden and Finland in the event of an attack, “possibly also by military means”. NATO itself also wants to offer the aspiring members protection, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Sunday during the NATO summit in Berlin. The alliance “will seek to accelerate the accession process” and “look at ways to deliver security guarantees, including by increasing NATO’s presence in the region.”