The Argentine economy lives a singular process, which has similar features to other previous ones, but it is difficult to find an identical parallelism. According to estimates of the World Bankthe GDP will grow this year 5.5%, a considerable leap compared to the fall of 1.8% of 2024. Just as last year the final figure ended up surprising because the projections of the first quarter gave a much greater fall that, in addition, was added to the evil results that were since 2018, in 2025 they also had to correct the previous numbers because the recovery of the activity pushed the activity. Does this imply being a path of sustained growth?
Deceleration. The heterogeneous behavior of the different segments of the economy has to do with the variables attacked mainly by the stabilization policy that has already been completed a year and a half. The first data is the collapse of inflation, from the more than 20 monthly points (16% monthly average in the first quarter of 2024) to the current figures in a range that goes from 2% to 3% monthly. The objective data is the main asset of the government in economic matters and on which he is mounted to leverage his electoral campaign. In a country with inflationary memory such as Argentina, IPC uncontrolled rise is automatically link with loss of purchasing power and heritage erosion. And the main variable that officiates of thermometer is the price of the dollar, in its more or less free version (Blue, MEP or what approaches it).
The dollar battle vs prices was an overwhelming victory of the second, something that should not be surprised from a stabilizing process: the IPC increase 210% in the first 18 months of management and the American ticket only grew 20% in the best case. This threw deflation of deflation expectations as the first result (something that ceased to feed the speculative or defensive demand of the dollar) but a sharp change in relative prices. The rest is known history: recovery of salary and non -salary income from the second quarter of 2024, loss of competitiveness based on the exchange rate, growth of import demand and the consequent fall in the commercial surplus of the first half of last year.
The formula to stop inflation feedback can be reduced to three elements: reduction of the fiscal deficit, sanitation of the balance of the balance of the Central Bank and change in medium term expectations. The instrument could be simplified in the phrase of blender and chainsaw: a decrease in national spending through the delay of the salary indexation of the public sector, retirement, brake on public works and the reduction of non -automatic transfers to the provinces to their minimum expression. The question that arises, then, is whether this fact that constitutes the cornerstone of economic policy is sustainable or a mere “inflation repression”, after which (probably after the elections) must find another exit.
Alternative. Considering the main explanatory variable of the process, the look perches on the fiscal surplus. According to economists Marcelo Capello and Nicolás Cámpoliof the IERALin the first four -month period of this year the national primary surplus is maintained, but the composition of the adjustment changes: there were fewer cuts in retirement and universities, but more in subsidies. Instead, the provinces strongly increased their expense, reversing a good part of the adjustment they had made in 2024. Thus it turns out that the national primary surplus was 0.6% of GDP (0.7% in 2024), but in line with the annual goal (1.6% for the whole year). This adjustment is explained by lower energy subsidies and transfers to families (except for AUH); But retirement, universities and investment rise.
On the other hand, in the provinces, the primary expenditure rose 24% real interannual, in contrast to the strong decline of 2024. “If the adjustment achieved is diluted and the margin is limited to reduce taxes,” they explain. “While the national adjustment becomes more selective, in many provinces it is disarm. Between 2023 and 2025, national primary expenditure fell 27% real; In provinces, only 8% in the 13 provinces with available data ”they conclude.
An example of these difficulties in continuing to keep the supervital goal is in pension matters the increase in spending that would cause initiative such as the one already has half a sanction. An exceptional improvement of 7.2% for all retirement levels is implemented, such as compensation for the lag of the first quarter of 2024 and an increase in the fixed bonus (from $ 70,000 to $ 110,000), the extension of the decaying moratorium, for two years for those who do not reach 30 years of contributions, which are calculated in 240,000 beneficiaries only this year. Invecq consultant estimates that, if approved, the fiscal impact would be significant: “The annual cost of pension improvements – a support in retirement and bonus – would reach 1.2% of GDP, the reinstatement of the pension moratorium would add 0.2% of GDP and initiatives linked to disability would imply an additional 0.3% expense of GDP,” they detail. The sum of all this would give a total annualized cost of 1.7% of GDP.
Unequal. Economist’s calculations Lorenzo Sigaut Gravinaof Equlibra They show the dichotomy between mass consumption performance (strong fall and lean recovery) and the segment of durable goods (strong expansion after the initial fall). “But not only flies the durable consumption but everything imported: tourism (service) and final consumer goods” And the explanation has to do with the change in relative prices -product of exchange appreciation, reduction of obstacles/taxes and tariffs on imports/durable -a key factor to explain the disparate dynamics between massive and durable/imported consumption. Until April 2025, the prices of consumer goods had risen 21% compared to the durable ones. Volume indicators are also eloquent: between 50% and 65% more than in November 2023 (in unstacted terms) against a drop of between 10% and 15% for final consumption goods. A gap that has winners and losers, according to the conformation of the expense basket of each.
This step of the reactivation to growth will not only depend on the already difficult task of protecting the fiscal surplus (already an achievement in recent history) but also to achieve a balance in the balance of payments that is claimed by many economists (of the “mandriles” and others) to achieve the desired goal: a sustainable development. Sector imbalances, lack of competitiveness in some sections of the production chain and the expansion of credit for the virtuous circle of savings and investment. They are tasks that are not exhausted in an electoral calendar, perhaps not in a single administration, still assuming the absence of black swans of all kinds.
