Tomi Natri / All Over Press
The most interesting game of the day
The league semifinals continue on Saturday with replays of yesterday’s matches.
Both Pelicans and HIFK came close to knocking off favorites Ilves and Tappara in the opening matches – but only close. In both pairs, the underdogs stretched the matches to overtimes, but were unable to win in the end. In this way, both Ilves and Tappara were able to preserve their home advantage in the series, which was under threat due to external reasons.
Today, the pressure factors are already in the direction of Pelicans and HIFK, because from a 0–2 loss position, grabbing three consecutive wins from Tampere seems like a pretty high mountain.
One of the favorites for the other matches, Tappara can be expected to improve after getting a feel for the game. In the opening match, the one-week break and the fact that the team had only four matches in three weeks clearly showed a certain kind of laxity, slowness and error-proneness. I personally believe that Tappara is significantly sharper today than yesterday. In terms of betting, this can also be seen in the fact that Tappara’s successes are offered for the second match with lower odds than the opening game.
Yesterday I was cautiously in favor of IFK, but today even its higher odds than yesterday are not attractive. There are only cosmetic changes in the team compositions. IFK in defense Tom Hedberg is replaced Otto Salini and at Tappara, Geoff Platt makes room To Philip Granath.
In the opening match of the Pelicans–Ilves pair, it is worth noting that the Pelicans won both shots (42–32), shots on goal (22–15) and expected goals (2.1–1.5). Among the underdogs, Pelicans is clearly a more likely “surprise” than IFK today.
Among the ranks of Ilves, there are yesterday’s shortages (Aku RätyBalazs Sebok and Jarkko Parikka) also dropped for this day as well Jarno Koskiranta. However, I don’t count a huge number of those as a minus compared to normal, because Ilves’ game is more and more a collective activity, where the individual blocks are quite easily replaceable. Of course, Koskiranta’s intervention, in addition to the previous ones, now twists the power relations in the direction of the people of Lahti. Regarding the Pelicans, it is worth noting that the team will get its number one defenseman Teemu Eronen back to the playing lineup.
Judging by the Pelicans’ coaching comments yesterday, the team still had some potential in the opening match. Even in this match, the odds have moved in the right direction since the opening game, which means that the Pelicans’ probability of victory has also been increased in Veikkaus’ estimations. Because of this, the Lahti people’s odds are not even a hint.
Pelicans–Ilves played quite tight and tactically yesterday, and there is no indication that the playing methods against “familiar teams” will loosen up – rather the opposite. I expect a fairly low-scoring match from the second meeting. In terms of betting, the best search for tonight’s semifinals is the 1.60 offered for the under 4.5 goals in the Pelicans–Ilves match.
Both semifinal games start at 17:00.
The best betting tip of the day
The best bets on Saturday can be found on the football side. The Championship, returning from the international break, offers no less than three odds settings worth trying.
QPR’s new upcoming cult manager by Gareth Ainsworth has so far not really taken off under the leadership. The team with Ainsworth has won only one series game so far, with a rather terrible total balance of 1–0–4 goals 4–13. However, QPR and Ainsworth should not be thrown down the drain just yet. Now, the team has had the national team break to put even their defensive play in order. League jumbo Wigan is a very suitable opponent for QPR and the pressure on the visitors is less. I think the 1.84 offered from QPR’s +0.25 is a clear over-odds.
Although the series break could have been good for Norwich, who have played quite poorly lately, it is still difficult to see the Canaries even at home as weird favorites against Sheffield United, who are 13 points ahead in the league table. Before the break, Norwich was in game problems even with Stoke, Hudds and Sunderland. Much needs to be improved in the game so that Sheffield United does not get control of the game for themselves in this match. Based on this idea, the plus handicap received by SheffU should be enjoyed until the games.
In the WBA–Millwall match, Veikkaus has wanted to stand out from the international odds all week by offering the home team almost a tenth higher odds than the others. Let’s believe in market forces and take WBA as a receipt with a coefficient of 1.98. All these Championship matches start at 17:00.
Other possible searches are Preston-Blackpool (kick-off 2:30 p.m.) over 2.25 goals at odds 1.97, Bristol City-Reading (kick-off 5:00 p.m.) at odds 1.77, Brighton-Brentford (5:00 p.m.) over 2.5 goals at odds 1, 76 and Athletic Bilbao–Getafe (17.15) over 2.0 goals with a coefficient of 1.91.
Today’s games: Norwich–SheffU+0.25 2 (odds 1.72), WBA–Millwall 1 (odds 1.98), Wigan–QPR+0.25 2 (odds 1.84) and Brighton–Brentford over 2, 5 goals (odds 1.76).
Total balance of the day’s games for the year: 31/57/90%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.