Supermarkets will achieve slightly less turnover this year than in 2021 as consumer mobility has increased. Research agency IRI expects supermarket sales to end with a slight decrease of 0.5 percent compared to last year. After that, turnover will increase again in 2023 by about 2 percent.
A further decrease is expected for 2024 because tobacco sales will probably disappear from supermarket sales from that year.
“In the forecast for the coming years, we have assumed a scenario in which restrictive corona measures no longer apply,” said Rini Emonds, retail business consultant at IRI. “In the summer of 2022, despite the fact that more people will be on holiday abroad, we expect slightly higher turnover than last year. After the summer, we expect volumes to fall further, but with unchanged turnover due to the increased prices. In December, sales will decrease compared to last year, as we were dealing with a complete lockdown at the time.”
A slightly lower growth in turnover is expected for 2023 than the average over the past few years of approximately 2 percent compared to 2022.
A dip is expected before 2024 because supermarkets may no longer be allowed to sell tobacco. This means that about 2.5 billion euros in turnover will disappear.