News item | 01-30-2024 | 14:52
The plan capacity for the Netherlands is 1,075,000 homes in the Netherlands from 2022 to 2030. That is 25,000 more homes than a year ago. The approximately 180,000 homes that have already been built in 2022 and 2023 are part of the total plan capacity. There is therefore sufficient capacity to meet the total housing construction task. This is evident from research conducted by ABF Research for the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations.
The new inventory of the planning capacity of provinces shows that the number of ‘hard plans’ has also increased. These plans have legal certainty, so construction can start. This concerns 7,000 additional homes compared to six months ago. For the next five years, 48% of housing plans fall into this category.
Better market conditions appear to be on the way because the headwinds have subsided – interest rates have stabilized – and incomes and therefore borrowing capacity have increased. This is reflected in rising house prices, which increases consumer confidence. And this is evident from the number of sales for new construction, which is now increasing for the third quarter in a row. The economic causes of the construction dip are behind us, but its effects will be visible in the coming years. It is therefore important to adhere to the policy that has been implemented to accelerate housing construction and to implement it expeditiously. In 2022 and 2023, production still met the housing construction target: More than 90,000 homes were built in 2022 and this will most likely be 90,000 again in 2023, meaning that the first 180,000 homes of 981,000 homes have been built.
It is still too early to speak of a real turnaround. For example, the number of building permits granted does not yet show the increase necessary to sufficiently fill the pipeline of construction projects. The expectation is that 2024 and 2025 will see a dip in construction. The NVM quarterly figures do show that the number of home sales has increased for the third quarter in a row.
Extra effort required
Last year, a new Primos forecast showed that a total of 981,000 new homes are needed from 2022 to 2030. This is 45,000 more homes than agreed in the Housing Deals. The government, provinces and municipalities endorse the need to include additional housing plans in the local housing programming. At the beginning of March, Minister Hugo de Jonge of the Interior and Kingdom Relations will inform the House of Representatives about this.
Sufficient planning capacity
ABF Research carries out a six-monthly inventory of the planning capacity of provinces up to and including 2030. This concerns the total number of homes included in housing plans. Plans may be delayed or ultimately canceled. That is why the government has agreed with provinces that they need 30% more planning capacity – as a necessary buffer. Nationally, this is virtually met, but a number of provinces are still lagging behind.