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In model calculations for the Bavarian economy, the Prognos experts assume in their “upper electricity price path” that wholesale prices could be over 500 euros per megawatt hour over the course of the next year and only then fall again. The estimate is based on the assumption that Russia has stopped supplying gas.
For the “medium electricity price path”, the authors assume that Russia will continue to sell gas to Germany on a reduced scale. If so, they reckon wholesale electricity prices would be around €189 in 2023, not significantly higher than they are now. The client was the Association of Bavarian Business (vbw) in Munich.
Five hundred euros per megawatt hour would correspond to a kilowatt hour price of 50 cents. The Prognos estimates relate to wholesale. As end consumers, many private customers are currently still paying less than 30 cents/kWh.
If Russia resumes gas deliveries in full, according to Prognos, prices in the “lower electricity price path” could fall to a good 100 euros per megawatt hour next year. The authors emphasize that the development of electricity prices until the middle of the decade is very uncertain.
By 2027/28, the Prognos consultants expect electricity prices to fall again significantly. In all three scenarios, however, they assume that electricity will remain more expensive in the long term than before the corona pandemic and the Ukraine war.
Gas and electricity prices are related because natural gas is also used in power plants to produce electricity. If gas is scarce, this affects electricity prices, and coal has also become more expensive. “Electricity is simply too expensive for German companies in an international comparison,” said Bertram Brossardt, the general manager of vbw. “The high electricity prices are an enormous additional burden for companies.”
Brossardt demanded remedial action from the federal government, including a temporary change in the pricing mechanism electricity market. So far, this has been based on the “marginal costs” – these are the production costs of the most expensive power plant. Brossardt also called for the electricity tax to be reduced to the lowest possible level under European law.
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