Hi Arnout, yesterday it was announced that Turkey has agreed to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. How important is that?
NATO chief Stoltenberg had already announced that the Turks, Swedes and Finns would meet in Madrid. He already showed that the pressure on Turkey was considerably increased. Indeed, no one doubted that Turkish President Erdogan would eventually approve Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership.
“But the best outcome was that it would happen before the NATO summit. With some commitments from Finland and Sweden to Turkey, we finally succeeded. Erdogan can thus show in his own country that he has achieved something.
‘The accession of the countries is of great importance. NATO wants to do everything it can to radiate unity these days. That is also necessary in the light of the war in Ukraine and the Russian aggression.’
Is NATO’s expansion to include these two countries special?
‘It is especially exceptional if you look at the military traditions of the countries themselves. Sweden has been a neutral country for a long time and Finland has traditionally kept the country’s defense in its own hands.
‘In practice, there was already a great deal of military cooperation with NATO. But it was only since the war in Ukraine started that this formal accession was discussed. Since then, support for NATO membership has grown significantly in both countries. That, and the realization that Sweden and Finland are safer under NATO’s nuclear umbrella, has led politicians to make this decision.
‘The importance of NATO has in any case increased enormously compared to, for example, a year ago. The role of the Americans still proves crucial, even if you look, for example, at their support for Ukraine in the fight against the Russians. The European strategic autonomy that is being sought is disproportionate militarily to the combined strength of NATO. Many European leaders are now aware of this.’
On Monday, Stoltenberg announced that NATO is drastically increasing the number of rapidly deployable units, from 40 thousand to 300 thousand soldiers. How is NATO going to achieve this?
‘That’s one of the big questions at this summit. The number of 300 thousand mentioned has led to some frowning here and there. The countries have not yet decided on this themselves. Stoltenberg is thus ahead of the troops.
‘It also concerns the number of soldiers that countries make available for NATO. So there is no need for huge numbers of soldiers, they have to be ready and deployable more quickly. But that too is a very ambitious goal, and it remains to be seen whether it will be successful.
‘In the Netherlands we know how difficult it is to scale up defense. We have made cutbacks for years and there is now a serious shortage of personnel in our armed forces. If you want better employability, you will eventually have to hire more people and invest in equipment. That costs time and money. The leaders will discuss this further during this summit, although I don’t expect a concrete plan to be forthcoming yet.’
What are the NATO countries going to agree on during this summit about their attitude towards Russia?
‘I think this summit is mainly dominated by new agreements on collective defense and deterrence. And especially towards Russia. For example, the countries will agree that more troops will be present along the eastern flanks of Europe than before. That is the real transformation and biggest turn of NATO since the cold war.
“There will be no definitive military bases, as the Baltic states wanted, for example, but NATO troops will be organized in such a way that they can react at lightning speed to a Russian attack. It helps that Sweden and Finland also belong to NATO, it makes it easier to defend the Baltic states.
Estonian Prime Minister Kallas previously said that under the existing agreements, his country will be wiped off the map in the event of a Russian attack. Stoltenberg has now promised that the new model will guarantee that the Estonian capital Tallinn cannot be taken.”