Still no prelude to a new civil war in the US

Is America a ‘normal’ country after all? For weeks, the world watched in amazement as a collection of chunky pilots prepared to take a hard turn at the wheel of the ship of state. People who promised to immediately investigate President Biden’s son in depth. Or sue the Minister of Justice. They believe that certain books should be banned from the school library and that teachers should carry firearms to protect students. And an individual who thinks that humans can’t descend from apes, because there are still apes alive. The latter can still become a senator for the state of Georgia.

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Four days after the election, it is still unclear whether the Republican Party, of which these candidates are members, will gain a majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps the Senate. But that majority will be too small to completely paralyze the government. And more importantly, voters have shown that the culture war that is frantically inflated in some media is not a priority for them.

If we saw a “fight for the soul of America” ​​on Tuesday, we now know that Americans fought not for flag respect, but for good economic policies, for infrastructure investment and lower health care costs. And about the right of women to make a choice about her pregnancy. In short, these really seemed like normal elections, not the prelude to a new civil war that had been prophesied to us in the preceding months.

The current divisions of the US are simply reflected in the results. Citizens just voted – the judge in Arizona was forced to keep armed ‘ballot guards’ from areas. Losers have simply acknowledged the result, with a few exceptions, such as conspiracy theorist Doug Mas-triano who did not become governor of Pennsylvania.

A good day

The fact that Mastriano and many of his kindred spirits were voted out will be the main reason President Biden said Wednesday of “a good day for democracyspoke. “The Americans have made it clear that they do not want every day to be smothered in political bickering.”

Biden had more to be happy about. Huge loss was expected due to high inflation, Biden’s personal unpopularity (a approval rating of 41.5 percent), added to the political reality that the president’s party typically loses seats on a “gap year” like this. The Republican Party lost 40 halfway through Trump’s term, the Democrats no less than 63 in the first midterms from Obama. With 32 more districts whose results are not final, the ruling party’s loss appears to be below 20 seats this time.

What seemed to be irreversible trends in recent decades – who is a Democrat only votes for Democrats and vice versa and independent voters are virtually meaningless in numbers – has encountered an extraordinary result in 2022. This does not seem to be influenced so much by party loyalty and the ability to rally as much of its own supporters as possible, but rather by citizens’ involvement in important themes.

It is striking that in states where a referendum on abortion could also be voted on, voters took the ‘progressive’ position on that point, including in conservative states such as Montana and Kentucky. For the extremely good results of the Democrats in Michigan – where they won the governorship, most seats for the national House of Representatives and both houses at the state level – abortion is also considered as an explanation.

underestimated

It’s about time to take a closer look at Biden himself. The old hand who so convincingly defeated Trump in 2020 has been written off many times since. Too old, too confused, disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, misjudged the persistence of inflation, humiliated in Saudi Arabia, where he came begging for oil.

All true. But he has pursued an unwavering policy towards Russia, in which he has persuaded both the allies and, for the time being, also his political opponents. He has passed important laws with the support of his own party, including the left wing, and with the support of clumps of Republicans. And some of the Republicans who declined to support him in doing so have taken credit for the benefits of those laws in their home states.

His bumbling during speeches (he repeatedly confuses Iraq and Ukraine) and his creaky motor skills make him appear weaker than his results. It’s like the baseball world from Michael Lewis’ money ball, in which systematically undervalued players – such as the pitcher who throws such a jig – unexpectedly form a top team. The fact is that with his rallies in Pennsylvania, Biden has helped retain the Senate seat and governorship for his party, while former President Trump traveled to that state three times without being able to bring success to his candidates.

Typically, in his Wednesday speech, Biden briefly reflected on the Democratic Party’s relative electoral success and immediately switched to his remaining political agenda: fighting the climate crisis, boosting American manufacturing, bringing down drug prices.

This weekend he will travel to Indonesia for the G20 meeting. Then he meets the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, America’s rival with whom he, according to the agenda provided in advance by the White Housewants to look for ways to – normally – continue to work together.