The division is a painful defeat for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. It announced the sixth sanctions package at the beginning of this month with great fanfare. She proposed, among other things, to say goodbye completely to the ‘black gold’ from Russia this year.
That will not happen. According to diplomatic sources, there are likely to be exceptions for Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. It has been reported from Commission circles that a proposal is now on the table to ban only imports by sea this year. Half of this oil import goes through the port of Rotterdam.
“There will be a provisional exemption for oil from the Druzhba pipeline,” it sounds in Brussels. This pipeline runs to Hungary and Slovakia, among others. But how ‘provisional’ the exemption for Hungary is remains a mystery. According to a senior EU diplomat, no end date has been agreed with this country alone. In exchange for this exemption, the country would have to start building a new pipeline to the Adriatic Sea. Brussels wants to sponsor this project for alternative oil deliveries.
Level playing field
Several member states are also demanding a guarantee that crude oil from Russia will not be refined into the rest of Europe via Hungary as diesel or petrol. That would damage the level playing field for port countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium and Italy, warns an EU source.
“The negotiations are moving in the right direction,” says a well-established diplomat with some hope. “But it is still unclear whether Hungary can agree. They don’t want energy security to be compromised in any way. They are starting to demand so many certainties that we can no longer see the wood for the trees.”
The sixth sanctions package, which also includes measures against Russian banks and real estate deals, can only be deployed if all EU member states agree. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been threatening a veto for weeks. He even indicated last week that he did not want to discuss the subject during the EU summit. Nevertheless, the heads of government and heads of state will discuss it on Monday, but the chance of a political agreement seems minimal.
Encouraged
During the additional summit, EU leaders will be digitally encouraged by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The European Council will also brainstorm plans to support the Ukrainian government financially, rebuild the country destroyed by Putin’s army and the proposals of European Commissioner Frans Timmermans to quickly become independent from Russian natural gas.
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi will again draw attention to high energy prices. He would like a European price ceiling for natural gas. But the Netherlands and Germany, among others, think this is unwise.