A state commission will examine the consequences of population change up to 2050. Minister of Social Affairs and Employment Karien van Gennip (CDA) announced this on Wednesday in a letter to the House of Representatives† The State Commission for Demographic Developments 2050 must issue advice on the social consequences of, among other things, population growth, aging and migration. The committee must present future scenarios and their consequences for society, and advise on government policy.
According to the cabinet, such a committee is necessary because society can change increasingly until 2050. The population will grow – with an expected population of 17 to 22 million people – and there will be relatively more elderly people and people with a migration background. These changes can have major social consequences: the housing market can change because the number of single-person households grows, because the elderly continue to live independently for longer after their partner has died.
The population changes also have consequences for labour, according to the minister. The current labor market tightness may increase due to an aging population. Not only are a relatively large number of people leaving the labor market at about the same time, but the increase in the number of elderly people will also drive up the demand for care – and this sector is already struggling with staff shortages.
Future Policy
Current and future governments can respond to these consequences, writes Van Gennip. Not only by influencing demographic factors, such as the birth and death rate or migration, but also by making other policies. For example in the field of behavioral changes, such as promoting a healthy lifestyle. It would also be an option to encourage women and the elderly to work (longer or more).
Van Gennip advises the committee against looking at measures to increase birth rates. Because it takes a long time for newborns to enter the labor market, this does not solve problems in the short term. There is little chance that these measures will change the labor market problems until 2050, in fact: because these children need education and childcare, they can in fact increase the shortage in the labor market in the short term.
More can be achieved in the field of migration, says the minister. ‘A conscious, active and selective’ policy would be a real option, but it should be considered ‘conservation and exit’. For example, consideration should be given to the effects of migration on care, housing, education, public safety and support for migrants in society.
In 2018, the House of Representatives voted in favor of a motion that argued for such a state commission. It is not yet known who will take place in it. The committee will start work after the summer.