The in-game gems of the week’s standard round can be found in the Championship.
Iltalehti’s standard tip swears by Swansea. PDO
In the Norwich–Coventry and Swansea–QPR matches, the game percentages have been strangely distributed among the teams. Norwich has successfully recovered from its early season bridge by winning its four previous league matches. On the field, the team still hasn’t really convinced. I personally attribute at least part of Norwich’s winning streak to suitable opponents (Hudds, Millwall and Birmingham).
On the other hand, against the tougher Sunderland, Norwich was lucky in their 0-1 away win last time. Coventry’s position at the bottom of the league table with only one point also gives a wrong signal about the power relations between Norwich and Coventry at the moment. Coventry’s early season has gone wrong, at least at this stage, because its Home Ground has been in an unfit condition. The team has only been able to play four matches after seven series rounds. Of course, Coventry’s winning account has yet to be opened in those as well, but the team should not belong to the tail of the series in terms of its basic class. Before the season, Coventry was ranked in the upper middle class of the Championship. Personally, I’m not going to lower that estimate very much, at least not yet. I can see, according to the betting market, that Norwich should not be much more than a 50 percent favorite to win in object 7. However, when Norwich has been played in Vakio for about 75 percent, passing is a really tasty search.
An even more amazing game distortion is on offer at destination 8, where punters have pegged away team QPR as almost 45 per cent favourites. In terms of sports, Swansea and QPR have been pretty much the same this season, although QPR is 12 places higher than Swansea in the league table thanks to all sorts of coincidences. For example, in my own “shadow standings” based on game events, both teams are in the middle class with the same “correct” score. There aren’t any special factors in this match that would make QPR somehow better, so in a match between equally strong teams, the home advantage team should be around 40% favorite. The betting market also rates Swansea as the winning favorite about four times out of ten. Ykkönen is a very good safe pick for target 8 when played less than 30 percent.
On the Premier League side, the best favorite for sure is target 1’s away team Manchester City. The difference in playing level between Aston Villa and City is so big at the moment, that the people of Manchester should be around 75% favorites even away. In standard, the team is technically even underplayed. As a rule, the Premier League targets are played fairly correctly. A small advantage is offered by Crystal Palace’s possible surprise win against Newcastle, Wolves’ home win against Southampton and Bournemouth’s stretch in Nottingham, which has sacked its coach. In the Championship, Cardiff have a slightly better chance of avoiding defeat than they currently have a lower reputation as a guest of Millwall. Also in the Blackburn–Bristol City match, the home team should at least be secured with a cross.
Standard system 288 lines (72 euros)
1. Aston Villa – Manchester C 2 2
2.Tottenham – Fulham 1 1
3.Newcastle U – Crystal P 1 12
4. Wolverhampton – Southampton 1 1x
5. Nottingham – Bournemouth 1 1×2
6.Brentford – Leeds U 1 1
7.Norwich C – Coventry C x x2
8.Swansea – QPR 1 1
9.Rotherham – Watford x x2
10.Preston – Birmingham 1 1
11.Millwall – Cardiff C 1 1×2
12.Luton – Wigan 1 1
13. Blackburn – Bristol C 1 1x