The lack of cold in many regions, the drought and the pests derived from warming put crops at risk
ANDhe global warming has become a real headache for farmers. The increase in temperatures, the absence of precipitation, the normalization of extreme weather events and pests (also increased by heat) have destroyed thousands of hectares of crops around the world. The economic consequences are more than evident, not only for the producers themselves, but also for consumers. The lack of raw material hinders the supply and, therefore, prices rise.
Because the demand, and even more so in times when there is an insistence on reducing protein of animal origin, does not go down. In addition, imports increase, so transport costs must be added to the tariff. And the perennial shadow of inflation, which, although it moderates, remains very high. The euros that were needed to buy a kilo of any fruit a few years ago are now barely enough to buy 500 grams.
The first thing to pay attention to is how the winters have changed. According to the latest report published by Copernicus, the EU Earth Observation Program, in Europe, in the months of late 2021 and early 2022, an average temperature of one degree higher than the average for winters between 1991 and 2020.
In Spain, the State Meteorological Agency gave an even more worrying piece of information a few months ago: December 2022 was the warmest of the entire historical series. Overall, the winter period was the tenth coldest since there are data (1961) and the fifth warmest this century. One more example that the Earth is heating up at a devilish rate.
The natural cycle is disturbed
The trees have noticed, and a lot, this phenomenon. And it is that, For flowering to be adequate, it is essential that they accumulate cold during the winter. If temperatures rise, the natural cycle is altered and this affects the quantity and quality of the fruits.
In the most extreme cases, it can even ruin the entire season. It’s more, if flowering is early, there may not be enough insects to pollinate them. Or, even worse, some plants may not survive frost.
Scientists have been warning about this for some time. According to a study carried out by experts from the Polytechnic University of Madrid and the University of Castilla-La Mancha, it is necessary to design local and flexible adaptation strategies according to climate projections to prevent the reduction in temperatures from compromising the viability of some fruit varieties.
Specifically, in the text they analyze what can happen to almond, plum, apple, peach, olive and vine trees according to the foreseeable evolution of the climate. The choice of these species is not trivial, since they are trees with a lot of weight in the Spanish countryside.
The conclusion is clear: only varieties with low cold needs will remain viable in the next 30 years. That is to say, the least compromised species will be the cherry tree, the olive tree and the vine. However, in these last two cases the situation is not entirely rosy either in all cases (see attached information).
Only varieties with low cold needs will remain viable in the next 30 years.
At the opposite end are the plum tree, the almond tree and the apple tree. In the middle is the peach tree. Luckily, experts offer solutions to this problem: “It is possible to adapt by moving crops to adjacent areas, or by careful selection of varieties with adequate cold needs. The development of those with lower cold needs would also contribute to the viability of the crops.”
But the lack of cold is not the only thing that worries the Spanish countryside. Extreme weather events associated with climate change are another major threat to farmers. Droughts, torrential rains, and cold or heat waves are often behind the drop in the production of some species.
The surviving fruits see their quality diminished: the taste capacity decreases and variations in their size, coloration, conservation capacity and amount of sugars are appreciated.
Managing water in the face of drought
The water problem has many facets. When talking about it in Spain, it is inevitable to mention the ‘water wars’, unfortunately so normalized in the most arid areas. Although there is no solution that pleases everyone, the experts point to the need to create a country strategy and implement infrastructures that can take this precious liquid to the most dependent regions.
If this is not the case, dramatic summers like the one experienced last year in the Axarquía, in Malaga, where hundreds of avocado growers died of thirst, will be repeated. “Emergency infrastructure is needed to bring water to the productive areas with the highest added value of national agriculture,” they say from the Spanish Association of Tropical Fruits. However, Scientists and ecologists do not welcome the spread of tropical crops, because they require large amounts of water.
Pests destroy 40 percent of global crop production each year
The same thing happens with pests. According to the report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), these destroy 40 percent of the world’s crop production each year. Translated into the economic field, it represents a cost of more than 165,000 million euros. The clearest example is the fruit fly, which has exponentially multiplied its population due to global warming.
The threats do not stop there: repeated scientific reports have warned for years that rising temperatures will bring growth in foodborne infections. Another worrying factor.
The European Environment Agency has warned of the coming drama. In one of its latest reports, the agency stresses that changes in climate “have already altered the length of the growing season in large parts of Europe. Flowering and harvest times are several days earlier. It is foreseeable that these changes will continue to occur in many regions. Without going any further, in 2022, the stone fruit campaign in Spain suffered a sharp reduction due to the strong frosts that occurred in spring.
Another option is for science to come into play to modify the DNA of crops and make them more resistant to extreme conditions. This is the premise with which they work at the Institute for Agrifood Research and Technology (IRTA). There they have created the ‘tutti’ apple, a “red, crunchy and juicy” variety adapted to hot climates and which is the fruit of more than two decades of work. The same is being done with other crops.
Once again, the future can be forged in a laboratory.
OIL PRODUCTION FALLS 40%
ANDhe liquid gold that comes out of the fields of Andalusia (up to 80 percent of the national total) is one of the greatest hallmarks of the country. However, climate change also threatens this leadership. The Association of Agro-Food Cooperatives of Andalusia has made it very clear: its estimates place oil production in the 2022-2023 campaign at 918,000 tons, almost 40 percent less than last year, when it rose above 1.5 tons. The drama is especially pronounced in Jaén, the olive-producing province par excellence, where the amount of product will fall by half. Extreme drought and high production costs (especially energy) are the main culprits. The RitmeNatura project estimates the economic losses in values above 1,700 million euros.
It seemed impossible, due to the characteristics of the olive trees. They are strong trees and have a high capacity for adaptation and resistance to extreme temperatures, both high and low. His survival seemed assured. However, radical changes in temperatures and rainfall will affect their vegetative cycles, the characteristics of their olives and, therefore, the composition of virgin olive oils. In the 2010s, an average of 1.3 million tons were produced per year and half corresponded to the ‘EVOO’ category (extra virgin olive oil, the most valued). To achieve this precious ‘EVOO’, several factors must be aligned, including the quality of the olive itself, the climate and the terrain. For the olive tree to grow correctly it must be subjected to temperatures between 26 and 32 degreesthat is, in regions with mild winters and hot, dry summers.
And although there are studies that suggest that an increase in temperatures of just over one degree can be good for olive trees, this first diagnosis is corrected when the rest of the consequences of climate change are taken into account (the aforementioned droughts, waves of heat and cold, the DANA…), which can ruin thousands of hectares of crops.
The characteristics of the soil greatly influence the final result. Whether the land is rainier or sunnier can be seen in the degree of spiciness or softness of the resulting oil.
Contact of the Environment section: [email protected]