The end of this century will bring us big changes in population distribution world. For a start, China will no longer be the most populous country (India will be), the Congo and other African nations will increase their population exponentially and Spain, for example, will lose half of its residents, until it remains at 23 million, compared to the current 46. These are the trends pointed out by scientists in successive studies that agree on the same criterion: there will be a population increase from now on for a few decades, but then humanity will reduce in number.
From an environmental point of view, this reduction will cause a general decrease in the impacts suffered by the planetaccording to experts, but at the same time will pose other challenges: How to properly maintain and care for a growing aging population and greatly reduced workforce.
In total, the world population probably will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 and then decline to about 8.8 billion by the end of the centuryas women have better access to education and contraception, according to a study published by the journal The Lancet in 2020 and later corroborated by other scientists.
By the year 2100, a situation will occur in which 183 of 195 countries will not have the fertility rate required to maintain their current population, according to researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine. In this graph You can see how the population will vary, country to country.
Some 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, will see their populations reduced by more than 50%these researchers said.
China’s population will fall by half
Instead, Sub-Saharan Africa’s population could triplewhich will lead to the curious circumstance that almost half of the world’s population will be African by the end of the century.
The same study of The Lancet It also predicts a drastic decline in working-age populations in countries like China, which will harm their economic growth and could have negative implications for workforces and social support systems, the researchers said. In fact, China will cease to be the most populated country on Earth by the end of the century, remaining at ‘only’ 732 million inhabitants, compared to the current 1.4 billion.
However, immigration could come to the aid of countries that lose fertility rates, a fact that could compensate for the decline in population, particularly in countries with low fertility, such as the United States, Australia and Canada.
“The world, since the 1960s, has been focused on the so-called population explosion,” Christopher Murray, who led the research, told CNN. “Suddenly, now we’re seeing this kind of inflection point where we are rapidly moving from the problem of having too many people to having too few“.
Population decline in Europe and Asia
The most rapidly declining populations by 2100 will be in Asia and eastern and central Europe.
The report predicts that Japan’s population will decline from around 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100, Thailand will see a reduction from 71 to 35 million, Spain from 46 to 23 millionItaly from 61 to 31 million, Portugal from 11 to 5 million and South Korea from 53 to 27 million.
Another 34 countries, including China, are also forecast to see their population decline by up to 50%.
But, in addition, Murray explained that not only will the population be reduced, but society will generally be older, which would have a substantial impact on economic growth.
“There will be more people who will need to receive government benefits, whether social security or health insurance, and fewer people who will pay taxes.“he explained.
Black Africa will skyrocket
Researchers project that the population of sub-Saharan Africa could triple over the course of the century, from approximately 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100.
The North Africa and Middle East region is the only other region projected to have a larger population in 2100 than in 2017, with a forecast of 978 million compared to 600 million.
“Because fertility will remain high for longer, the relative proportion of the world’s population that is African will increase considerably. We will reach the point towards the end of the century where just under half of the world’s population will be African, following these trajectories,” Murray told CNN.
The world population will be older
The study also predicts important changes in the global age structure as fertility declines and life expectancy increases, with 2.37 billion people over 65 years of age worldwide in 2100, compared to 1.7 billion under 20 years of age.
The overall number of people over 80 years old could multiply by six, from 141 million to 866 million. Meanwhile, the number of children under 5 years old is forecast to decline by more than 40%, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100.
The researchers said these “dramatic reductions” in working-age populations in countries such as India and China They will obstruct economic growth and lead to changes in world powers.
The report’s authors say the new forecasts highlight the “enormous challenges” that a shrinking workforce will pose to economic growth and the high burden that an aging population will place on health and social support systems.
The role of immigration
The authors suggest that population decline could be offset by immigration and that countries with liberal immigration policies will be better able to maintain population size and support economic growth, even as fertility declines.
“If more people die than are born, the population will decline. And the only way to counteract that is with migration,” Murray said.
While the report’s authors note that fewer people would have “positive implications for the environment, climate change and food production,” an aging population can present its challenges.
“The problem is that the inverted age pyramid is a real problem about how societies are organized and how economies work, how taxes are paid,” he said. “What we really need to figure out is how to transition from the state we’re in now,” she said.
Reference study: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext
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