These are uncertain times. When the country began to rear its head after the 2008 financial crisis, the coronavirus pandemic once again caused instability in both the world and Spanish economies. The stock market is at risk every few months. During this type of crisis, the risk increases considerably. The risk of loss is difficult to control, so there are expert professionals who are dedicated to identifying the risks.
Identifying the risks of the crisis in a macroeconomy is very complicated, even more so in uncertain times. It is a process of identifying and evaluating risks, by creating a plan to reduce or control them, and with the aim of reducing the effect or impact that it could have. It does not only occur in the macroeconomy, but in companies or investors. Risk management has more precise tools to measure the consequences of actions, since much of it can be calculated mathematically.
In risk assessment, the loss in human, social and economic terms is irreversible. Therefore, in order for this situation not to become structural, we had to look to the future and seek a way out so that the Spanish economy recovers a balanced and sustainable status as soon as possible.
coronavirus crisis
Spain was one of the most affected countries in the world due to the COVID-19 health crisis. In the fight against the pandemic, Spanish politicians imposed severe restrictions on mobility. After the health crisis came the economic crisis, with consequences such as millions of unemployed or the disappearance of thousands of SMEs.
In a report prepared by the CEOE (Spanish Confederation of Business Organizations), they identify Spain’s strategy for the recovery of Covid-19, from the beginning of the pandemic until now:
With the passing of the months the Spanish State has been recovering with measures to alleviate the crisis. At first, the Spanish government launched programs focused on guaranteeing liquidity to sustain the productive fabric. Once daily life began to be restored, measures were established to adapt to the gradual recovery of activity.
The next step was to recover the sectors most affected during the crisis. The tourism and hospitality sector represents 12.3% of the national GDP and 2.6 million jobs. With the confinement, the activity went to 0% and the income too. The industrial sector is 14% of GDP and also has a presence in international markets. The transport sector represents 4% of GDP and is linked to tourism and the movement of people. The health sector represents 6% of the national GDP and despite the efforts of health professionals there have been delays in payments from public administrations.
The sectors that were least affected and that are leaders in this country were the strengths to get out of the crisis: The activities with the most future and exponential growth, investment in technology, increase in exports, digitization of the productive fabric of our country and competitiveness in the rest of the industrial activities were promoted.
Future
Brussels places Spain at the head of growth in the EU (European Union) with 5.6% by 2022. The forecast of the European Commission improves the previous one by one tenth, although it is 1.4 points lower than the Government’s 7% and considers that Spain will return to pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2022.
As for 2023, Brussels expects Spain to grow by 4.4%, among the countries that will grow the most in the EU, but far from the 7.3% forecast by the Spanish Government. The average growth forecast for the EU in 2023 is 2.8%.
In the words of the European Commission: “investment and exports were the main drivers of growth, while rising prices, rising infections and uncertainty restricted private consumption. Overall, GDP increased 5% in 2021.”
Source: Goodly Media
