• Tesla is still the market leader in the e-mobility sector
• Other vehicle manufacturers are switching to electric vehicles
• Bank of America sees Ford and GM overtaking Tesla in the medium term
The topic of e-mobility is inevitably linked to the US pioneer Tesla. Every year saw where other car manufacturers concentrated on their combustion engines Elon Musk a turn towards electric vehicles ahead. While he was initially smiled at and avoided bankruptcy quarter after quarter, the tide has now turned completely. There is no way around electric cars in the future. The EU recently decided that from 2035 petrol and diesel vehicles will no longer be registered. Good times for Tesla, one might think. Not quite, because the competition has now realized that traditional vehicles will be obsolete in the foreseeable future. Numerous traditional car manufacturers now have their own e-vehicles in their portfolio or are working flat out to realign their product range – and are increasingly catching up with the market leader Tesla.
According to BofA, Tesla’s market share is likely to shrink significantly by 2025
But that’s not all: As the Bank of America predicts in its annual “Car Wars” study, the US automakers Ford and General Motors should soon overtake Tesla – by 2025 to be exact. Analyst John Murphy assumes in the report that Tesla’s current market share of over 70 percent is likely to shrink to around eleven percent in the next three years. The expert sees the two US companies GM and Ford at around 15 percent each, which would place them ahead of the Musk company.
Tesla expansion too slow, not enough products
A problem that Murphy identified at Tesla and which should lead to the competition passing by in the medium term is the company’s lack of product diversity, which is also only being expanded very slowly. According to The Detroit News, the analyst says of Tesla CEO Elon Musk: “He’s introducing new products at a very slow rate. He doesn’t have a full product portfolio, so there’s a big opportunity for other manufacturers to fill the gap and catch up .” Instead, there would be delays at the e-company, such as with the announced Cybertruck, the production of which has already been postponed several times. According to Murphy, this slow expansion would lead to Tesla falling further and further behind over the next few years.
For Ford, on the other hand, Bank of America predicts that the replacement rate of the vehicle models in the traditional carmaker’s showrooms will be 23.7 percent in the years 2023 to 2026, which would correspond to the highest rate in the auto sector. General Motors would have a replacement rate of 22.4 percent, slightly below the industry average of 23 percent. Here the two competitors would have the opportunity to expand their market share accordingly.
missed opportunities?
Murphy criticizes Tesla for not having raised more money on the capital market in the past than the company had the opportunity to do so. That way you could have grown much faster and “closed the door”. Instead, Musk would not have acted quickly enough: “He didn’t see what was happening in the market. He had so much hubris that he could never be caught, they could never do what he did, but they do it,” said Murphy .
Tesla age over
Accordingly, Murphy summarizes at an event of the Automotive Press Association in Detroit: “Tesla’s dominance in the EV market, especially in the USA, is over. The whole thing will clearly shift in the opposite direction in the next four years”, as Automotive News quotes the analyst. It now remains to be seen whether the expert will ultimately be right in his assessment.
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