Our daily assessment for the US stock index S&P 500 for Tuesday, December 6th, 2023 – DAYTRADING
S&P 500 Review:
The S&P 500 was trading at 4,559.0 points yesterday morning. The index was initially able to recover in the morning, but then gave up its gains again. Things only picked up a bit when official trading started in the afternoon. The movement was then immediately bought again and parts of the profits were given away. In the late afternoon, trading calmed down and the index moved sideways in a tight box. Only later in trading did some buying pressure arise.
The S&P500 continued to recover in early trading.
S&P 500 chart check – viewing in the 1h chart:
The S&P 500 was trading below the SMA20 yesterday morning (currently at 4,576.4 points). The hourly chart shows that the index stayed below the SMA20 until the afternoon, but only managed to push above this line again when official trading began. The movement went up to and above the SMA50 (currently at 4,575.0 points), but the S&P 500 initially failed to settle above this line. The setback went back to the SMA200 (currently at 4,570.1 points) / SMA20. In the hourly chart it is clearly visible that the S&P 500 was able to stabilize and recover within the range of the SMA200 in the evening. This recovery continued in early trading. As a result, the index was able to settle above the SMA20 / SMA50.
As long as the S&P 500 is trading above the SMA50 at the end of the hour, it could continue to rise towards 4,621/23 points and, above all, to 4,644/47 points.
The hourly chart would become cloudy again if the index established itself below the SMA200 / SMA20. If this happens, it could be an indication that further levies could occur, which could reach the 4,512/10 point range.
Assessment of short-term chart image, forecast: bullish
View in the 4h chart:
The S&P 500 has been rising at the SMA20 (currently at 4,577.6 points) for several weeks of trading. The setbacks that occurred during trading were able to stabilize and recover in the SMA20 area. As part of the significant setback in the further course of trading, it went below both the SMA20 and the SMA50 (currently at 4,570.4 points), although the S&P 500 subsequently managed to push itself back above these two lines and subsequently to establish itself, but subsequently pushed itself back under these two lines. The index simply cannot get away from these two lines.
If the S&P 500 can push itself above the SMA20 again and establish itself, it is conceivable and possible that further upward impulses will emerge that have the prospect of achieving the start-up targets that were defined in the hourly analysis.
The chart picture would become cloudier if the S&P 500 were to settle firmly below the SMA50. Further levies could arise that could achieve the start-up goals mentioned in the hourly consideration. Overall, it could also reach the SMA200 area (currently at 4,417.1 points).
Assessment of short-term chart image, forecast: bullish
S&P 500 outlook for today:
The S&P 500 is currently trading at 4,584.0 points, 25.00 points above the level yesterday morning.
Long setups: The S&P 500 could initially try to establish itself above the 4,584.0 point mark. If this succeeds, the index could try our next target targets at 4,586.9, at 4,588.1, at 4,590.1, at 4,592.6, at 4,594.6, at 4,596.7, at 4,598.8, at 4,599, 7, at 4,600.9, at 4,602.9, at 4,604.7, at 4,606.9 and at 4,611.2 points respectively. Above the 4,611.2 point mark we could continue to move up to our next target points at 4,613.3, at 4,615.8, at 4,618.0, at 4,620.2, at 4,623.1, at 4,625.7, at 4,628.9 and then go to 4,631.1 points.
Short Setups: If the S&P 500 cannot stay above the 4,584.0 point mark, it could continue downwards to our next starting targets at 4,581.6, at 4,579.3, at 4,577.2, at 4,575.0, at 4,573.0 4,570.2 and then go to 4,568.3 points. Below the 4,568.3 point mark, the S&P 500 could see our next target points at 4,566.2, at 4,564.1, at 4,562.2, at 4,559.8, at 4,557.5, at 4,556.9, at 4,554.8 4,553.2, 4,551.0, 4,548.9 and 4,546.5 points respectively.
S&P 500 resistance
- 4,609.8
- 4,622.7
- 4,640.7
- 4,671.3
S&P 500 supports
- 4,577.6
- 4,576.4
- 4,575.0
- 4,570.4
- 4,570.1
- 4,535.4
- 4,417.1
- 4,397.2
Based on our setup, we expect a sideways/upward market today. This results in the following probabilities:
- Probability of bull scenario based on our setup 55%
- Probability of Bear scenario based on our setup 45%
This assessment must always be seen in relation to the pre-market.
4,599.7 points / 4,618.0 points to 4,574.1 points / 4,564.1 points is the daily range we expect today.
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