Ski jumping: half-time oracle speaks for Wellinger

Ski jumper Andreas Wellinger is almost at his finish after the New Year’s jump, at least statistically speaking. Because whoever leads the overall ranking after Garmisch-Partenkirchen has the best chance of winning the gold eagle: since 1998/99, 18 of the 25 half-time leaders were also ahead in the final tally in Bischofshofen. In the last 15 editions, only three jumpers lost their lead.

However, in two of the most recent four editions, the leaders in the overall classification did not even reach the podium. Ryoyu Kobayashi (2019/20) and Halvor Egner Granerud himself (2020/21) only finished fourth in the final rankings. However, Kobayashi won his second tour title in 2021/22 as half-time leader.

Schlierenzauer falls dramatically

Gregor Schlierenzauer experienced the most dramatic crash in the winter of 2007/08. The World Cup record winner from Austria was still leading after the third competition, but then fell back to twelfth place at the end in Bischofshofen as 42nd in the daily ranking.

The last German overall leader after the New Year’s competition was Sven Hannawald in 2001/02, and Wellinger has now followed in his footsteps.

Of the ten German jumpers who have won the opening competition in Oberstdorf since 1992, only four successfully defended their lead in Garmisch-Partenkirchen; of these, only Hannawald won the tournament in 2002. Jens Weißflog took the lead in his overall victory in Garmisch-Partenkirchen in 1995/96.

The leaders from Garmisch since 1997/98 and their final placement in the Four Hills Tournament:

Season – Leading Garmisch – Final position

1998/99 Martin Schmitt (Furtwangen) 4.
1999/00 Andreas Widhölzl (Austria) winner
2000/01 Noriaki Kasai (Japan) 12.
2001/02 Sven Hannawald (Hinterzarten) winner
2002/03 Janne Ahonen (Finland) winner
2003/04 Sigurd Pettersen (Norway) winner
2004/05 Janne Ahonen (Finland) winner
2005/06 Janne Ahonen (Finland) winner (tied with Jakub Janda/Czech Republic)
2006/07 Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria) 2.
2007/08 Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria) 12.
2008/09 Wolfgang Loitzl (Austria) winner
2009/10 Andreas Kofler (Austria) winner
2010/11 Thomas Morgenstern (Austria) winner
2011/12 Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria) winner
2012/13 Anders Jacobsen (Norway) 2.
2013/14 Thomas Diethart (Austria) winner
2014/15 Stefan Kraft (Austria) winner
2015/16 Peter Prevc (Slovenia) winner
2016/17 Kamil Stoch (Poland) winner
2017/18 Kamil Stoch (Poland) winner
2018/19 Ryoyu Kobayashi (Japan) winner
2019/20 Ryoyu Kobayashi (Japan) 4.
2020/21 Halvor Egner Granerud (Norway) 4.
2021/22 Ryoyu Kobayashi (Japan) winner
2022/23 Halvor Egner Granerud (Norway) winner
2023/24 Andreas Wellinger (Ruhpolding) – ?

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