Sinner, what now? It can be number 2 in the spring and number 1 in the fall. that’s how

Number two in spring, number one in autumn. Raise your hand if last year, in these times, you imagined a Jannik Sinner with the possibility of overtaking Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic in the rankings in the space of twelve months. Not many hands would be raised, and with good reason. Above all, the comparison with the Spaniard is impressive in terms of numbers, and it is perhaps the data that is most striking and makes us understand Jannik’s incredible acceleration in a relatively short time.

the comeback

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Monday 20 February 2023 Alcaraz, fresh from the withdrawal in Melbourne, was still number two in the world, with 6480 points, not too far from Djokovic (who was at 7070), but Sinner was actually number twelve in the ATP rankings, at 2745 points. Between the two, therefore, there was a difference of 3735 points: an enormity. Tomorrow, one year later, the distance will have been reduced to 835 points, with Alcaraz n.2 at 9105 points and Sinner, the new number three, at 8270, with the South Tyrolean having 5525 points more in the ranking than in 2023. Given the form of the two probable future dominators of tennis, with all due respect to the almost 37 year old Djokovic, and with the Sushine Double upon us, with a pinch of optimism (supported however by the realism of the numbers) one can imagine Sinner overtaking comparisons with Alcaraz and therefore the conquest of second world position already in the spring, even in April, at the end of Miami or thereabouts.

double sunshine decisive

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Much will be understood after the ATP 500 in Rio de Janeiro, scheduled for this week, where Carlos has to defend the 300 points of the 2023 final, lost against Norrie. Not a small bill. The Spaniard, then, also has to face the 1000 points of the Indian Wells victory last year and the 360 ​​of the Miami semi-final, where he lost to Sinner. In short, from here to the end of the Double Sunshine, Alcaraz (including the Rio Open) has a total of 1660 points against Sinner’s 960: seven hundred points difference, with the novelty also of the different ATP score introduced this year, which rewards (albeit not sensationally) who reaches the final, semi-final, quarter-finals and so on. This will also be a variable to take into consideration. To date, it is not unthinkable to imagine a victorious Sinner in one of the two American 1000s and an Alcaraz in quite difficulty.

variable rental

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Of course, unlike 2023, there is the variable Djokovic, who last year did not play in Indian Welle and Miami due to problems related to the Covid vaccination and therefore has nothing to defend in terms of scores. The Serbian’s participation could take away important points from the two contenders. Also for this reason, question no. 1 for Sinner is postponed for a few months, probably to the autumn. Here too it is not fantasy, the numbers say so, cold and without thoughts. Sinner in 2023 after the final reached in Miami and including the round of 16 of the US Open, has 3100 points to defend (again with the scoring system relating to 2023) with the heavy bills of the Wimbledon semi-final and the victory in the 1000 in Toronto , but nothing compared to those of his rivals, with Alcaraz having to defend something like 6725 points and Djokovic (who is currently n.1 with 9855, 1585 more than Sinner) instead 6785 points. There is talk of more than double the top two players in the world to defend compared to Sinner. Therefore, a few more months of patience and, in the hope that Jannik can continue in this way, it is not unthinkable to think of the first Italian king of the ATP ranking.