In the virtual screening Jannik remains ahead of the Spaniard. But there is the unknown Medvedev
After winning and playing his debut matches at Indian Wells, Jannik Sinner is still ahead of Carlos Alcaraz in the virtual ATP rankings in the race for number 2. The South Tyrolean, with the success against the Australian Kokkinakis, has reached 7960 points, while the Spaniard after beating our Arnaldi is at 7855 points.
the situation
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We remind you that this is only a virtual projection of the ranking, because according to the official ranking Alcaraz is still second with 8805 points and Sinner third with 8270. However, the Wimbledon winner has already lost 1000 points, since he won Indian Wells that year last, while Jannik only 360 given that in 2023 he stopped in the semi-final: here the real loot with which the two players showed up at the Californian tournament is 7910 points for the blue and 7805 points for the Spaniard, to which they will go gradually accumulating the points of this edition, as happened in the case of the successes obtained by the two after their winning debut.
the wait
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The ranking, in fact, does not remove the points to be taken away until the tournament is over, then calculating the “balance” between the previous season and the current one. Jannik started second in the virtual ranking with 105 points ahead of his Spanish rival. So what needs to happen for Sinner to officially become number two? The blue will certainly be in front if Alcaraz stops before the quarterfinals: going out in the round of 16 means taking home 100 points, not enough for the Spaniard to stay ahead. If Carlos were to exit in the quarterfinals (which give 200 points) Jannik would only need to reach the round of 16 (100). From the semi-final onwards, whoever does better is in front, and let’s remember that the two could meet, according to the scoreboard, in the semi-final, in a sort of direct clash for second place in the world.
The conditions of alcaraz
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The favorite in the race at the moment is undoubtedly Sinner, given the conditions of the two contenders. There are many doubts about Alcaraz, especially about his physical fitness: the former world no. 1 is recovering from a sprained ankle suffered in Rio de Janeiro, in the first minutes of his match with Monteiro, so he does not show up for the match in California. 100%, and the performance with Nadal in favor of Netflix matters little. Beyond everything, it’s been months since Alcaraz hasn’t been the same phenomenon he had enchanted until last year’s Wimbledon. In Australia he lost, badly, to Zverev, in Buenos Aires even Jarry defeated him in the semi-final, a decent player but not even close to a good version of the Spaniard. Even in terms of mental stability, Alcaraz doesn’t seem to be experiencing an exciting moment, given the constant blackouts during the matches, and there was proof of this against Arnaldi too.
the unknown Medvedev
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There would also be another rival to place behind the unreachable (for now) Novak Djokovic, that is Daniil Medvedev, but more only for a purely mathematical question than anything else: the Russian should win the tournament (he was a finalist in 2023) and Alcaraz and Sinner should both do no better than the quarter-finals. In this case, the Russian would score 8115 points, ahead of both the Italian and the Spaniard, albeit by very little.
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