The Turkish presidential elections last Sunday had an unexpected protagonist who, despite not having passed to the next phase of these elections, has become a key player in the victory of the next president of Turkey. sinan ogan, he obtained 5.2% in the first round, a percentage that does not allow him to continue being a candidate for president, but his support must now be divided between the two candidates who will compete for the head of state, the current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the opposition candidate, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.
“This second round is especially interesting because of its novelty. Until now, a second round had never been held because since the system changed to presidential, Erdogan had always exceeded that 50% support,” the Turkish political analyst explained to EL PERIÓDICO Berk Esen. The polls predicted a Kiliçdaroglu triumph that could even be settled in the first round, but the reality was different, and Erdogan overtook the opposition candidate with a advantage of more than four points. Even so, insufficient to avoid the second round that will take place on May 28.
“Kingmaker”
Sinan Ogan has thus become the unexpected “king maker”, as he has been dubbed by the country’s press, because the result of the second phase of these elections could depend on who he decides to support. Despite not having publicly commended to any candidate, Ogan marked the red lines of his support on Monday, and hinted that he would not support Kiliçdaroglu. He assured that he alone could support the opposition candidate if he agreed not to make concessions to the pro-Kurdish parties, something practically unthinkable since they are part of the coalition.
“We will consult with our voter base on our decision in the runoff. But we have already made it clear that the fight against terrorism and the return of the refugees are our red lines,” Ogan told Reuters in an interview on Monday. Ogan, 55, a former academic, ran in the first round of the presidential election as a candidate for ATA, an alliance of Turkish ultranationalist parties led by the Victory Party, known for its anti-immigration stance and strong hand against the Kurdish people. Ogan then claimed that his goal was to remove two predominantly Kurdish parties from Turkey’s “political equation” and bolster Turkish nationalists and secularists.
Erdoğan’s victory
For Erdogan, on the other hand, the support of Ogan’s voters is something more feasible. “Ogan will not publicly endorse Erdogan, but his votes will almost certainly go to the president. Still, it is likely that Ogan and Erdogan agree in ‘petit committee’ and that after the president’s victory, Ogan will occupy a ministerial portfolio,” says Esen. “For the opposition, Ogan’s support would be vital, but it would mean a dilemma for them. Kiliçdaroglu received a lot of Kurdish support, especially from the east of the country, and Sinan Ogan is a Turkish ultranationalist who will not tolerate any kind of concession of the opposition candidate to the Kurdish people. Even if Ogan asked for the vote for Kiliçdaroglu, I do not see it as feasible that his voters, Turkish ultranationalists, would support him, “he ditch.
The vote numbers from the first round made it quite clear that Erdogan has not lost as much support as initially expected and that he has good chances of revalidating the mandate. “Despite having achieved the worst results in its history, taking into account that Turkey was recently hit by the worst earthquake in its history, as well as a serious economic crisis Erdogan hasn’t really had such bad results. What’s more, he far exceeded the voting expectations that gave Kiliçdaroglu the winner in the first round,” reflects Esen.
voting prospects
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Facing the second electoral round, both candidates start from different positions than they had for the first phase. The predictions are now different. In fact, the experts say that it is possible that the defeat of the opposition in the first round will take its toll on them in the second and there are people who do not go out to vote. “The only thing I see that could lift up Kiliçdaroglu is that Erdogan’s supporters can relax having won the first round and do not go to vote so that the results could be equalized”, explains the political scientist. “Kiliçdaroglu is aware that the prospects are bad. In fact, he has been demotivated, and that could drag the voters away from him. He only made a brief appearance after the first election night that he shared on social media,” he adds.
Ogan said he had not met either Erdogan or Kiliçdaroglu since Sunday’s vote, but said he would be open to negotiations “on the basis of his principles.” “For example, we could sign a protocol with Alianza Nación (to support Kiliçdaroglu) to make it clear that they would not make any concessions to the HDP. It’s that simple,” he said.