The shortage of chips, cables and metals for heat pumps is decreasing rapidly. The number of pumps sold increased by 80 percent in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year.
In the first half of 2023, companies sold 85,000 heat pumps for homes. Of these, 25,000 were placed in new-build homes, while 60,000 were placed in existing houses and apartments.
“There are enough components for installations here and there. Heat pump manufacturers are catching up. We expect to sell 170,000 pumps to households throughout the year. This means there is a good chance that the goal of one million heat pumps installed in existing buildings in 2030 will be achieved,” says Frank Agterberg, chairman of the Association of Heat Pumps.
In recent years, its production has been drastically limited due to lower demand and supply problems during the corona pandemic. These mainly restricted Asian suppliers of parts and electronics in their exports. The war in Ukraine led to higher gas prices, and therefore to more demand for electric heat pumps, also in the Netherlands.
Waiting time decreases
There are still waiting times. The delivery time was more than a year, and has shrunk to ‘three to six months’, says Agterberg. “Depending on what you buy. But the supply from China is still improving.”
The shortage of installers in the Netherlands is the major bummer. Overstaffed installers will install twice as many heat pumps in existing homes this year as last year, Agterberg expects, the rest in new housing estates. Across Europe, according to the European umbrella organization of suppliers EHPA, there should be about sixty million heat pumps in 2030, compared to twenty million now.
The Netherlands wants to remove households from natural gas and, according to the government, heat pumps are a more economical alternative. The cabinet requires that a new central heating boiler must be at least a hybrid from 2026. It works on electricity and often uses the outside air for energy generation.
Decrease gas consumption
A hybrid pump, which can be used in addition to the existing central heating boiler, is usually cheaper, but still costs 3,500 to 7,000 euros. Such a pump saves 60 to 75 percent on gas consumption, according to the Milieu Centraal knowledge centre. There is a subsidy scheme that reimburses consumers for 30 percent of the purchase price.
A heat pump often gets its energy from the air, soil or groundwater. The most demanded heat pump at the moment is an air-water heat pump, which uses an outdoor unit to extract the heat from the air to transfer it to the home via radiators or underfloor heating. According to the industry, the heat pump emits at least 35 percent less CO2 than a gas boiler.
Installation companies are also catching up. And four major Dutch suppliers, Remeha, Itho Daalderop, Bosch and Vaillant, have expanded their production of new heat pumps. “In the coming years, companies will supply around 300,000 pumps per year. That is achievable provided there are sufficient trained installation personnel,” says the industry leader.
‘dire’
However, new-build neighborhoods with houses that increasingly have a heat pump as standard are sometimes not connected in areas with overloaded electricity grids. “There is not enough capacity. Especially in the low-voltage grid, it is extremely important that the grid managers keep up the pace with the reinforcement of the grid towards residential areas,” says Agterberg. “That is going to be urgent, especially in existing buildings. On average, a doubling of the power capacity is required for connections.”
The replacement of installations is also increasing in non-residential construction, for example schools, hospitals and sports complexes, according to Agterberg. This concerns a total of one million connections in addition to eight million households. “We offer them, provoke demand, but we are careful in increasing demand. We want to avoid that the heat pumps cannot be installed or connected to the electricity grid,” says Agterberg.