Should Ukraine Get Heavy Weapons To Stop The Russians?

The Russian army is engaged in a major “regrouping” involving the bulk of the force that was supposed to surround Kyiv. A large part of this, according to the US, is already in Belarus to regain strength and be resupplied. It won’t be long before they will move east and south through Russia, the White House warns

Goal: complete capture of the Donbas and other surrounding area. The Ukrainian army’s top said on Monday that Moscow will shortly also call up some 60,000 reservists for this new phase of the war. But the big question is whether the Ukrainian army will be able to stop the Russians in the Donbas with the weapons they have.

Because unlike the current conflict zones, there are armed Russian allies in the Donbas who already have quite a bit of territory in their hands: the pro-Russian separatists. Kyiv warns: With only the light, defensive weapons that the West has been willing to supply so far, the Ukrainians will not survive if the Russians and separatists break out and go on the offensive on a large scale.

Western anti-aircraft missiles and anti-tank weapons also have their limitations against such a large military force. “We certainly cannot do without heavy weapons if we want to relieve the east and beat the Russians back as far as possible,” President Volodimir Zelensky’s adviser Mikhailo Podolyak warned on Saturday.

Better chance against the Russians

Tanks, armored cars and artillery are the heavier weapons that Ukraine now wants as soon as possible. Because with greater firepower, it is thought, the Ukrainian army will soon have a better chance against the Russians in the Donbas, among others. “You have at least 20,000 tanks,” Zelenski told NATO leaders last month. “Ukraine asks for one percent of your tanks.”

It’s starting to look like the US and Europe have been listening. Because the limits of Western arms support to the Ukrainian army are being stretched a little further, although it is not yet clear how far the West is prepared to go. For the first time since the Russian invasion, US officials confirm, a batch of tanks will be delivered to Ukraine. In order to strengthen Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas, Russian-made tanks will soon be sneaked into Ukraine.

But exactly how much it is is kept scrupulously silent. It concerns tanks, possibly T-72s, which Eastern European NATO member states have in their arsenal. The US will help make delivery to Ukraine possible. With the tanks, Washington said, the Ukrainian army will have the opportunity to harass Russian units in the Donbas. Czech TV reported on Tuesday that a number of T-72s and armored vehicles had already been delivered to Kyiv from Prague.

Major threat

But Kyiv can look forward to even more heavy weapons. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said it will also supply long-range artillery pieces, armored personnel carriers and anti-missile defense systems. The latter must fight against Russian attacks with cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea. “More deadly weapons will be brought into Ukraine,” Wallace said late last week after a donor conference.

The conference was intended to look at whether arms support to Kyiv should be adjusted as the course of the battle changes. Germany has already announced that it will supply 56 armored vehicles, which will make the Ukrainian soldiers more mobile and offer more protection. And Australia will supply four Bushmaster armored vehicles to carry infantrymen. The Australian army is also investigating whether Bushmasters that have been sold to the Netherlands, the Australian broadcaster reports ABCcan be sent to Ukraine.

But just how much artillery and armored vehicles Kyiv can expect, Wallace was silent about that. The minister also did not say which artillery it concerns. Delivering howitzers capable of targeting Russian units tens of miles away will pose a significant threat to the Russians. However, the West also realizes that a small amount of tanks, armored vehicles and artillery pieces will not suffice to stop the Russian army in the east and in the south.

Appearance new Boetsja

The events in Butsha, and a possible recurrence in the Donbas, will increase the pressure on the US and Europe in the coming weeks to provide the Ukrainian army with enough heavy weapons quickly. “We must give Ukraine the weapons they need to fight,” US President Joe Biden said on Monday after the Butha massacre.

Last month, the US moved forward by promising Ukraine heavier surface-to-air missiles that could shoot down Russian warplanes at high altitudes. However, there is one problem: heavy weapons like tanks are also offensive weapons. Until now, the West has been hesitant to provide offensive weapons because it did not want to provoke Moscow. This was the reason that Polish MiG-29s were not given to Kyiv.

With the delivery of the tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery pieces, which can also be used by the Ukrainian army for offensive operations, the West is now moving a little further. However, if the US and Europe give Zelensky his way and start supplying even more heavy weapons of this type, they can always say that they are mainly intended for defensive purposes.

Russian threat

‘Artillery, tanks and more advanced air defenses, as well as anti-ship missiles, can of course be used offensively,’ says Frans Osinga, professor of War Studies at Leiden University and former F-16 pilot. ‘But what is more decisive is the operational and strategic context. As long as the deployment takes place in the context of the defense of Ukrainian territory and the weapons are used within Ukraine, they are mainly defensive means.’

Russia has already warned the US and Europe not to think of supplying it in particular with its long-range artillery and anti-missile defense systems against ship attacks. The Russian ambassador to London, Andrei Kelin, said threateningly that Moscow will not stand by. “These are new, fairly accurate precision weapons,” Kelin said. “They only aggravate the situation and make the battle even more bloody. Of course they will be legitimate targets for our military when they cross the border into Ukraine.”