Official statistics indicate that Argentines had accumulated at the end of last year US $ 271,000 million outside the systemto formal financial and of them a good part nominated in green tickets. Before seducing the foreign investor, the lifeguard of starting a virtuous savings-inversion circle is at hand, just one click on a virtual account or meters of a security box. But as one more paradox of the Argentine Social Laboratory, the Central Bank could not leave red in its international reserves.
Levels. The traditional mechanism to expand to the meager margin of maneuver that the Central Bank has due to the shortage of reserves is summarized to enter more currencies for a greater commercial balance or that funds enter the capital account. A higher exchange rate would generate, in principle an incentive to raise the level of exports and discourage imports. But reality worked differently: with the agreement with the International Monetary Fund On the way, the stocks were flexible, the funds arrived to discourage the devaluation bet and the dollar was positioned closer to the floor than from the roof of the “band.” At the same time, three factors worked to grow imports: the gradual gradual of tariffs and sectoral deregulations, change in relative prices with the increase in local costs and greater dynamism of economic activity that requires more inputs.
On the export side, despite traveling the “peak” semester of the liquidations, the agricultural sector looks at the fall in profitability that could translate into a retraction of production. “The Government seems determined to take the dollar to the floor of the exchange band to contain inflation and repurchase reserves. Within that framework, the producer’s greatest sales translated into greater foreign exchange offer, underpinning this policy ”the economist interpreted Roman Danteprofessor at the School of Agribusiness of the Universidad Austto the.
The other factor is the “threat” of an import boom due to the reduction of relative prices and the greatest activity. He Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) He showed intermensual growth rates sustained until February 2025 but, according to the figures handled by the Invecq consultant was interrupted in March. In his vision, this contraction occurred in part because of the complex macroeconomic context, “Characterized by uncertainty around the agreement with the IMF and the new exchange scheme, a jump in the exchange rate, the expansion of the exchange gap and an inflationary acceleration, factors that generated a paralysis in various sectors of the economy ”.
The economic team did not miss the opportunity to communicate that the priority is the decline of inflation and everything else is subject to this goal. Even the accumulation of reserves committed to the agreement with the IMF. The Central Bank must reach a modest level of reserves (-$ 2.6 billion of net reserves) in June and leave the red for December (+US $ 1.9 billion). Invecq estimates that for the first half of May they were around -us $ 8.5 billion.
Prices and quantities. Jorge Vasconcelos, chief economist of the Ieral, He points out another fact that also explains the brake of the economy when confidence entered into crisis, when not, of the delicate exchange balance. “With the Crawl at 2.0 % monthly, a kind of” virtuous circle “in favor of the expansion of credit to the private sector had been armed”he explains. In six months (until March) the credit to the private sector increased at an equivalent rate of 5.5 % monthly in real terms: a key engine of the recession output.
The index announced by (2.8% for April at the national level) has a substantial decrease compared to March (3.7%). Camilo Tiscorniadirector of C&T Economic Advisors He interprets that, for example, in food it rose half that in March for specific issues in that month. But it also points out that in education it went from 21.6% in March to 2.5% in April for its markedly seasonal behavior. The C&T price survey data of the May continue to show a moderation, that could make inflation fall below 2%.
The suffocon of last month that led to the change of exchange regime and the IMF’s help to oxygenate economic policy put inflation on the first place. Tiscornia points out that part of the funds entering international organizations or the organized “repo” loan, it is precisely to reach June with the level sought at the expense of increasing the debt. Everything adds and if necessary, the United States Treasury wink also counts.
Alchemy. Finally, the idea of using the dollars “of the mattress” as a means of payment arose, for operations that do not exceed US $ 100,000 and with the single presentation of a sworn statement. While the small print of the initiative is missing, in short, it is about suspending the application of the criminal tax and exchange regulations for these cases. A partial bleaching and with a defined objective: use the dollars saved and that the companies that receive them bankrupt. This would also be added to the tendency to increase the deposits in dollars from authorization to individuals to access the change market since it is estimated that so far two thirds remain in the bank.
Sebastián Menescaldi, Associate Director of Eco Goit seems to him that this will not be an immediate and integral solution. “It is very difficult to fight against a 50 -year culture that it was hard to get dollars, in which the public treasured the good currency and detached from the bad”stands out. However, he believes that this reluctance to use the tickets that were acquired by way of reserve of value or savings in the medium term You can continue to “lubricate” some sectors in which the use of the dollar is already installed as usual: the real estate and the car. Both come out of a long production crisis and this could give them an additional push. But also, he acknowledges that the decision of this saving that acts on the defensive was undervalued and that the chip that makes it a convinced buyer is sometimes unknown. “With achieving what comes so far it would be a great achievement and, in addition, that IMI’s dollars are not lost intervening in the exchange rate ”, concludes. One more commitment to reconcile what seems difficult, but in the Argentine laboratory it can be made possible.
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By Tristán Rodríguez Loredo
