The sea level rise caused by climate change in the Caribbean Netherlands mainly poses a threat to low-lying Bonaire.
The KNMI points out this risk in its new climate scenarios. For the first time, it also includes a chapter on Bonaire, Saba and St. Eustatius. The sea level rise on the latter two islands is slightly less than on Bonaire, but according to the institute they run increasing risks of hurricanes of the heaviest category.
Rise 3.7 millimeters per year
According to the KNMI, the sea level near Bonaire is currently rising by an average of 3.7 millimeters per year. Depending on global CO2 emissions, that increase could accelerate. This has several causes: higher temperatures cause ice caps to melt faster, and at the same time water expands as it gets warmer.
In a favorable scenario, the sea level at Bonaire will be about 14 centimeters higher around 2050 than it is now. If it is very disappointing and CO2 emissions continue to rise sharply, the increase could amount to 37 centimeters by mid-century, the KNMI has calculated. Around 2100, the increase near Bonaire in the low-emissions scenario will be limited to between 31 and 78 centimeters. In the scenario with the highest emissions, this increases to 55-127 centimeters.
As in the Netherlands, “uncertain processes” such as the instability of the Antarctic ice sheet could dramatically worsen the situation for the islands. If such factors are very bad, sea level rise on Bonaire could amount to 3.40 meters, according to the report. It is the first time that the KNMI has included the situation in the three special Dutch municipalities in the climate scenarios.
Kralendijk is at risk
The KNMI does not discuss the consequences of climate change for the population in this report. Researchers from the Vrije Universiteit (VU) in Amsterdam did research into this last year. On behalf of Greenpeace, they calculated that if all goes wrong, approximately a quarter of Bonaire could be flooded around the year 2150. The capital Kralendijk is certainly at risk, as is the airport and major roads. The coral reefs in the area are also vulnerable to warming. If these are lost, this will also lead to a greater flood risk, but diving tourism could also collapse, the researchers warned.